Israeli exit polls show split with close to majority on both sides

As of Wednesday, Israel’s election results were in limbo, with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot appearing well below the numbers needed to form a coalition government.

The latest Channel 13 poll early Wednesday morning gave both blocs 51 seats in the 120-seat parliament, The Times of Israel reported. It takes 61 people to form a governing coalition. Channel 12 and Can 11 showed Eisenkot’s block leading slightly, 52-50. Arab-led parties not affiliated with either camp were expected to win between 17 and 18 seats, their largest number ever.

Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff, declared victory and said the provisional results should give him the first right to seek to form a government. “The results of the first exit polls show a complete lack of confidence in Prime Minister Netanyahu and the October 7th government,” he said in a statement on X.

Exit polls are not official results, which are officially announced on November 4, one week after the election. According to the Central Election Commission, about 77.7% of eligible voters went to vote, the highest in a Knesset election in 27 years.

The vote was Israel’s first national election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and was widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s dominance of Israeli politics since 2009.

Netanyahu’s supporters credit him with guiding Israel through the war and standing up to international pressure, but critics point to his lengthy corruption trial, controversial judicial reform efforts and handling of the Gaza war as evidence that he is unfit to be president. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over the Gaza operation, which he has rejected.

The Arab parties and the party’s historical results are noteworthy factors in coalition negotiations. “Our votes will change the government,” Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said. According to the Jerusalem Post, United List chairman Ahmad Tibi had previously outlined plans to prevent Netanyahu from remaining in power after the election.

Amin Saikal, a non-resident senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the Arab-led parties’ pro-Palestinian stance was closer to Eisenkot’s than to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s, but neither party has vowed to support them.

“Even if Mr. Eisenkot’s coalition wins more seats, it is unlikely that the ruling party will be able to form a majority without including Arab and left-wing parties,” said Michael Ferrer, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy. “Otherwise, the next government’s policy on Iran, Palestine, and security may remain the same.”

But Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman, expected to win seven to nine seats and currently part of an opposition coalition with Eisenkot, refused to rely on Arab parties during the campaign.

Earlier on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners warned of strong Arab participation in the vote, prompting accusations of racism from the opposition.

“If we don’t wake up now, we will end up with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi,” he said in response to a series of posts highlighting long lines at polling stations in the Arab community.

Amin Saikal, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Relations, said even if Mr. Eisenkot ends up winning more seats, Netanyahu could try to use the coming weeks or months to his advantage by trying to delay the formation of a new government.

Saikal said the prime minister will “fight for political survival”.