On Sunday, a group of analysts called Citrini Research published a remarkable paper showing how agent AI could cause massive economic disruption over the next two years. This scenario assumes a report two years from now in which the unemployment rate has doubled and the total stock market has fallen by more than a third. The report states:
AI capabilities have improved, companies need fewer workers, white-collar layoffs have increased, displaced workers have spent less, margin pressures have led companies to invest more in AI, and AI capabilities have improved.
It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brakes…The system turned out to be one long daisy chain of interrelated bets on white-collar productivity growth.
This is a new kind of bear market, one focused on the gradual unraveling of the economy itself rather than a Skynet-style misalignment. In particular, Citrini’s scenario considers the impact of integrating AI agents throughout the economy and what it means if external contractors are replaced by cheaper in-house AI. This is similar to the death scenario for SaaS, but Citrini goes further and suggests any business model that involves optimizing business-to-business transactions.
As you might imagine, this report has caused quite a stir online. Not everyone buys this, even Citrini describes it as more of a scenario than a prediction, but it’s not so easy to name specific points where the scenario seems wrong.
Personally, I’m not sure that companies, no matter how smart they are, are ready to entrust their purchasing decisions to an AI agent. But in Citrini’s scenario, most of the affected decisions have already been handed over to third-party contractors, so it’s not as far-fetched as it seems.
