US President Donald Trump has struggled to pull the United States out of the war he started about six months ago, alternating between claims that Tehran is “begging” for a deal and threats to resume military strikes.
Currently, Iran’s hardline leadership is devising and pursuing its own strategy to continue confrontation with Washington.
One Iranian official said the strategy focuses on “offensive operations” as well as defensive actions to neutralize enemy threats.
The more assertive stance comes as maritime control of the Strait of Hormuz remains in dispute and a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the war expires.
Analysts say Iranian military leaders believe Iran is in a strong position to extract concessions from the United States and further adapt its weapons systems to bridge the gap with its more powerful adversary.
It would also likely mean greater mobilization of Iran’s allies in Yemen, Iraq, and elsewhere. In recent weeks, Houthi militants in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping and attacked Saudi oil refineries, while Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have targeted Saudi oil infrastructure.
The signal for the new posture in Tehran was sounded by a decree issued last week in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to reorganize Iran’s security leadership.
“If Iran’s conditions are not met, the strategy of shifting the war to an aggressive posture will definitely change the balance of power in the world,” said Mohammad Mokber, an adviser to Khamenei.
Mohsen Rezaie, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, belongs to a faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and believes that “the only way to get concessions from the United States is to continue the fighting, put pressure on the United States, and inflict a certain amount of pain on Donald Trump,” Sheena Azodi, assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University, told CNN earlier this month.
In confirming Ahmad Vahidi as head of the Revolutionary Guards, President Mojtaba’s decree spoke of the need to strengthen preparedness for “strong offensive operations against the enemy.”
“It was clear that Vahidi’s mission was to revise Iran’s military strategy in a more proactive and offensive direction,” said Hamidreza Azizi of the Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute.
A few days after the decree was issued, Brigadier General John Johnson, a senior political deputy in the Revolutionary Guards, said: General Yadr Javani – told Iran’s semi-state news agency Fars that “Iran’s actions are defensive, but in the future they may also take on an offensive dimension.”
Another adviser to Vahidi, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said the Revolutionary Guards were developing the ability to carry out operations “in enemy territory.”
“We need to be able to move operations into enemy territory at any time if necessary and ordered,” he told state broadcaster IRIB. The Revolutionary Guards were tasked with being able to “launch attacks against the enemy in an intelligent, selective and targeted manner.”
This means once again targeting US military facilities in the region. A new generation of more maneuverable ballistic missiles with cluster warheads and the innovative use of drones show that Iran has rapidly adapted its tactics in recent months.
“The regime has withstood barrage from the United States and Israel and retaliation from Gulf Arab states, and they are still holding out,” said HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
“They are now trying to turn this resilience into a lasting political advantage in the region, rather than letting this effort fizzle out over time,” Hellyer told CNN.
“Iran believes it has military superiority and is openly talking about going on the offensive rather than simply responding to a U.S. attack,” said Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible State Strategy.
“In doing so, Iran not only deprives the United States of control over the scope and geography of the war, but also its timing.”
Azizi believes that Iran is preparing short-term and long-term scenarios. The current no-war, no-peace situation, with its worsening economic problems, “could prompt Iranian leadership to escalate in order to force President Trump to lift the naval blockade or agree to a deal with more favorable terms for Iran,” he said.
“The Iranian leadership may conclude that the cost of entering into a new war is lower than the cost of gradually eroding its capabilities under the dual pressures of sanctions and blockade,” Azizi added.
Part of this aggressive principle is sustained and unpredictable attacks on tankers leaving the Gulf to keep oil prices high. Several oil companies run by the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC have been targeted in recent weeks.
Revolutionary Guard officials have openly talked about sabotage of the many undersea cables that pass through the Gulf, another form of asymmetric warfare.
In the longer term, Iran’s priorities may shift away from an axis of resistance that relied to some extent on non-state groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraq’s militia alliance.
“That element is becoming somewhat secondary to Iran’s own missile and drone capabilities, and with the great confidence Iranian commanders and leaders gained during the war, signs of a shift toward a first-strike approach are already evident,” Azizi said.
That doesn’t mean the Iranian government intends to abandon its proxies.
Iranian state media dutifully reports the movements and statements of most senior officials. But it ignored last week’s visit to Iraq by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)’s overseas operations commander.
Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani arrived in Baghdad just as the new government, under pressure from the United States, began a move to disarm Iranian-backed militias and integrate them into the regular army.
Iraq is at the center of a regional conflict between Iran and the United States. Iran has had significant influence in the country since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
As in the case of Syria, Iran is unlikely to relinquish the influence gained by having proxies throughout the region, even if some proxies are undermined by Israel or lose footing thanks to regime change.
If Iran and its regional proxies launch a simultaneous offensive, Saudi Arabia could be surrounded on three sides. Gulf sources say Iran continues to invest heavily in providing expertise and intelligence to the Houthis, while the latter provide advice to Iraqi militias.
However, the main objectives of Iran’s revamped military leadership are to build a more agile war machine with centralized command and develop missile and drone capabilities.
“This major transformation in our defense sector is necessitated by the current situation, to ensure that we do more than just defend ourselves,” said Naqdi, Vahidi’s senior adviser.
The administration feels it has a tailwind.
“They have not formally recognized control of the Strait of Hormuz. They are not in a hurry, but they want to extend their dominance,” Hellyer told CNN.
“The more aggressive stance is aimed at Gulf states, the United States and domestic audiences,” he added. “This is as much a sign of psychological confidence as it is a sign of military intent.”
CNN’s Aida Karimi contributed to this report.
