“Frankly, we are in a mess,” French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Monday.
In fact, he may be guilty of underestimation. After large-scale riots over the weekend, with estimated losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and theft, France faces a toxic combination of urban rebellion, political drift and economic crisis.
Riots broke out over the weekend in major cities across the country, and Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez tendered his resignation after police failed to quell the riots.
Looting was rampant in cities such as Paris, Marseille, and Bordeaux, and Limoges City Hall, which had survived both world wars, was severely damaged by fire and its clock tower collapsed.
‘There’s a sense that the state is out of control’: Reporter reacts to French riots
The weekend’s violence, which led to around 2,400 arrests, followed weeks of protests by French students angry about crumbling schools, teacher shortages and dire job prospects. More than 6,000 people were arrested and more than 100 schools were damaged in school protests that began at the beginning of the fall term.
More demos are planned for next weekend. The union is planning a strike in November.
France faces a winter of discontent ahead of next spring’s presidential elections. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is leading in opinion polls.
President Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence in a nationally televised address on Sunday, but offered no ideas for dealing with it or taking initiative. Rather, before leaving France for a three-day visit to the Gulf state, he warned against politicians taking advantage of the turmoil for political gain.
Lecorne similarly engaged in a blame game. When far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon accused the government of “opening the door to chaos” with police tactics, L’Ecornu responded: “You can’t make excuses for people who commit violence and ask them to stop violence. This is your political responsibility.”
Le Pen, who is running for president on the far-right National Rally party, has sought to bring immigration into the debate, blaming the violence on gangs from the impoverished urban banlieues where much of France’s immigrant population lives.
“Our country is caught between violence and powerlessness,” he said, suggesting that only her firm hand could restore order amid Macron’s “chaos”.
Adding fuel to the fire, her National Assembly leader Jordan Bardella called for the designation of “Antifa militias, far-left extremist groups, and Black Bloc groups” as terrorist organizations.
Black Bloc groups wear matching or similar black clothing during protests, along with face masks to conceal their identities.
Demonstrators clash in France, worst violence in decades
Analysts say the political divide, in which a snap election called by Macron in 2024 backfired and led to paralysis of parliament, is likely to continue and is at the heart of France’s deepening crisis.
France’s political center has evaporated, with the National Assembly and the far-left party France Indomitable led by Mélenchon increasing public anger, while successive prime ministers under Macron have been unable to pass a budget bill in parliament.
Robert Zaretsky, a professor of modern French history at the University of Houston, wrote in an op-ed for the Atlantic that there are a large number of centrist candidates, “most with relatively small numbers of supporters, but that will ultimately help secure a second election victory for one of the two candidates who represent the greatest crisis for French democracy.”
debt and decline
The current crisis has polarized an already deeply divided society. In addition to the shock and anger over the weekend’s unrest, there is also an air of defeatism. In a recent Ipsos/BVA poll, 85% of respondents said France was in decline, and 98% were dissatisfied with the current state of the country.
Whoever rules France next will have less room for maneuver, even if they are able to form a stable coalition.
The French economy is stagnant. Farmers suffered from a hot and dry summer, and global energy prices were inflated.
Tourism remains a big earner for France, but the images of street violence that have spread around the world over the past two days may deter some people from traveling.
French companies are wary of drift and indecision. Investments fell by about 1% in the first half of this year due to rising interest rates.
More than anything, I have debt.
Oxford Economics researchers said in July: “France has one of the highest government debt burdens in Europe, and political gridlock means debt levels are expected to continue rising.”
France will need to issue a record 340 billion euros of medium- and long-term debt next year, analysts say. Debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) rose to 119% in the second quarter of this year, double the European Union target.
Nervous investors pushed the yield on the country’s 10-year government bond to 4.9% on Monday.
The company’s reputation in the bond market has also not been helped by Mélenchon’s plans to freeze or eliminate French government bonds held by the Banque de France.
“Political divisions are likely to persist long after the 2027 elections, meaning France’s next government will continue to pursue fiscal consolidation,” Oxford Economics said. This would “prolong the existing highly uncertain situation, weighing on confidence and domestic demand.”
General Charles de Gaulle, the man most admired by the French, once declared, “France would not be France without grandeur.” De Gaulle had growing ambitions for the country’s global role and independence.
But during his long term as president, he also told aides: “I will keep the theater alive as long as I can and then I have no illusions and things will go back to the way they were.”
Mr. de Gaulle resigned a year after the 1968 riots that rocked France, an event some commentators liken to the shock of today.
When Macron became president, he was seen as an antidote to what the French call declinism, a word that first appeared in the French Larousse dictionary in 2016.
One critic wrote: “He gives a very positive and constructive message and is full of hope for the future. He shows that there is also another France.”
According to multiple opinion polls, even after 10 years, President Macron’s approval rating remains at around 15% to 17%, but criticism of his policies remains strongly supported by citizens who want more from their impoverished country.
