It has been a troubling period for U.S.-Ukrainian relations since U.S. President Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of failing to negotiate an end to the war and accused the United States of withholding vital military aid from Kiev.
President Trump then sent special envoys to Norway and Russia to move the peace process forward, but Washington walked away with only plans to restart trilateral talks.
Meanwhile, deadly attacks by Russia continue as Ukraine grows increasingly concerned about cracks in U.S. aid.
The latest tensions are a far cry from President Trump’s first bout with Kyiv, which began his second term by cutting off aid to the Ukraine war. Since then, Europe has also taken notice, and Kiev has rapidly built its own defense industry.
So how dependent is Ukraine still on US support? And can it continue fighting without it?
Experts say there are three main ways the United States can exert pressure on Kiev for some form of Ukrainian surrender to end the war started by Russia: economic, military and political.
The Trump administration halted new aid to Ukraine in early 2025.
The United States has so far sent at least $131.5 billion in total aid to Ukraine, and remains the single largest donor since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank that tracks wartime aid to Ukraine. Some weapons from U.S. manufacturers purchased during the Biden administration still flow to Ukraine, but many of those contracts have been fulfilled.
European Union (EU) countries and institutions as a bloc have surpassed the United States in total donations, sending at least $228.5 billion since 2022, according to data from the Kiel Institute.
Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden provide the most military aid among the EU countries. Britain and Norway also provide significant military aid from outside the region.
Many of the donations come in the form of NATO allies buying American weapons and transferring them to Ukraine.
However, such arms transfers to Europe still require approval from the Pentagon, giving the Trump administration new leverage.
“The delivery of interceptors to protect our country from Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for the interceptors that have already been agreed, but they have not come yet,” President Zelenskiy said on Friday, referring to Ukraine’s severe shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors.
Last week, Ukraine depleted its Patriot interceptor missiles, one of the few defensive weapons capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, leaving it far more vulnerable to Russian attack.
None of the ballistic missiles that hit Kiev overnight and into Thursday were intercepted, indicating that Patriot inventories remain empty or extremely low. President Zelenskiy told CNN hours after the attack that Ukraine primarily needs two things from its allies at this critical juncture: “not to lift sanctions from President Putin… (and) to provide us with better missiles.”
Given that these weapons orders are a boon for U.S. defense companies, analysts say the slowdown or blockage of purchases is unlikely to last long.
Military: Intel Shared and Satellite Internet
Although American financial support has collapsed, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on American intelligence and technology.
It does not replace America’s own systems such as the Patriot interceptor, the military version of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet called StarShield, and advanced missile warning technology.
“That’s something the Europeans don’t have, and they don’t have it because we (the United States) have been telling the Europeans not to develop it for the last 30 years…They can trust us,” said Max Bergman, Russia program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington.
“We are in a situation where we are proving to everyone in Europe that the United States cannot be trusted at all,” Bergman told CNN.
“This could be truly catastrophic for Ukraine in the sense that it could cause significant economic damage, significant loss of civilian life, and the withdrawal of civilians,” he said. “But I don’t think that will actually break Ukraine’s will to fight.”
President Zelenskiy said earlier this week that Ukraine had not received multiple warnings from U.S. intelligence about a ballistic attack. As a result, Russian missile attacks struck without the usual air-raid warnings warning residents to head to the bunkers, and Ukrainian officials said many more civilians were killed as a result.
The State Department and Mr. Trump himself deny limiting information sharing.
By Tuesday night, Zelenskiy said intelligence sharing with the United States was “working again.”
The country’s Defense Ministry announced Saturday that full access to StarShield had been restored, but it was not immediately clear whether the restoration of StarShield’s speed would be felt across the country. An official on the ground in Ukraine’s Donetsk region told CNN on Saturday morning that speeds in the region remain limited to 160 km/h.
Ukrainian officials say the restrictions interfere with fast-moving military weapons, prevent Ukrainian interceptor drones from defending against Russian attacks, and disrupt Ukrainian military operations in many front-line areas.
President Trump and some senior officials have denied making calls to limit Ukraine’s use of StarShield services, without providing a clear explanation of what actually happened. Earlier this week, President Trump said he was not involved.
But Musk denied taking unilateral action, saying in a social media post that “limitations on speed and usage will be determined by the U.S. military and ultimately the president.”
Experts said that in the short term, any further disruption or restrictions on the U.S.-backed system would likely be incredibly damaging to Ukraine. In the longer term, European allies are likely to spend more money developing their own systems to support Ukraine.
“The Ukrainians probably didn’t expect the United States to be so stooped and so betrayal, because this is not really an act of charity that the United States is doing. … This is a service that Ukraine is spending money on,” Bergman said of Kiev’s StarShield contract and Patriot interceptor purchase.
“What the administration is actually doing has far greater implications for the fundamental credibility of the United States as a supplier of technology and defense,” Bergman added.
Analysts said the conflict between the U.S. and Ukraine could also have far-reaching geopolitical implications and ultimately become a gift to the Kremlin’s war effort.
The move follows a number of controversial moves by the Trump administration this month, including lifting new sanctions against Russia before they go into effect and striking a deal to allow Russia to export diesel. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has so far remained steadfast in its maximalist demands to end the war.
Washington’s willingness to apply unprecedented pressure on Kiev “gives Russia some hope that if Russia continues with this war, eventually European resolve will wane,” said Natia Seskulia, a senior researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British-based defense think tank.
John Ruff, director of international partnerships at the Center for a New Eurasian Strategy, expressed a similar view.
“I’m sure the Russians are pretty happy at this point that their recent activities are putting a strain on Europe by forcing President Trump to put pressure on Ukraine to break the sanctions regime and not implement the Lindsey-Graham Act,” he told CNN. “It only emphasizes the fact that Europe and the United States are not on the same page.”
President Trump directly linked the release of detained American Stephen Hubbard to the lifting of sanctions, even though he earlier said the United States gave Moscow “nothing” in exchange for freedom.
US envoy Witkoff calls President Putin a ‘humanitarian’
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, calling him a “humanitarian.”
Experts said some of the tensions, particularly around diesel, with President Trump blaming Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries rather than the Iran war for the price hike, could ease after the U.S. midterm elections. But the problems of rising gas prices and the unpopularity of the Iran war will continue until the end of Trump’s presidency, Ruff argued.
Ruff said Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian oil refineries are “like putting a red cloth on a bull” for President Trump. “If we want to escape responsibility for what happened in Iran, Ukraine becomes an easy target.”
CNN’s Becky Pinnington contributed to this report.
