A wet storm will hit the central United States on Election Day, potentially impacting turnout in key elections in the region.
Which races will experience rain next Tuesday is still up for debate, and questions remain about the exact location and strength of the storm. This is normal for a forecast nearly a week out.
We’ll know more by the end of this week, but for now it looks like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas may have to contend with wet weather.
For those states and others in the central United States not among the more than 35 million people who have already cast their votes in early voting, the rain will be a factor in turnout.
Studies have found that while rain and other active weather conditions tend to suppress turnout, sunshine has the opposite effect.
The threat of rain on Tuesday could extend from parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, but depending on where the storm forms could mean the difference between staying dry, getting heavy rain or a nuisance shower.
The rain could be accompanied by gusty winds in the Midwest and Plains, and strong thunderstorms are possible to the south of the storm.
Dry weather is likely to bring the storm to a close for much of the East Coast and the West. The only exceptions are coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, where nuisance showers have not yet been completely eliminated.
There is one prediction that is certain. That means you don’t have to bundle your belongings. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above average for most of the eastern half of the country. Temperatures are expected to be slightly lower than normal only in the southwest.
The breakdown below shows predictions for some key states in the midterm elections. Please note that these forecasts may change as confidence increases in the storm’s path by the end of this week.
Georgia: Probably dry, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 80s.
Iowa: A chance of rain for at least part of the day, but there’s still a chance for rain to move out of the state by early morning. Highs are expected to reach the 50s and lows in the 60s.
Kansas: Precipitation is expected in parts of the state, but the amount and exact locations are still unknown. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.
Maine: Probably dry, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.
Michigan: Prediction models show widely different results. Some rain will bring widespread rain to much of the state, while others will bring only nuisance rain to western Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. High temperatures will be in the 40s to 50s in the Upper Peninsula and into the 60s in southern Lower Michigan.
New Hampshire: The weather will be dry, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
North Carolina: May be dry with highs in the 70s.
Ohio: Most forecast models are predicting less rainfall west of the state, but it’s too early to rule out wet weather. The treble should reach 60 seconds.
Texas: Rain is most likely to occur in the eastern half of Texas, especially along and east of I-35. There is also a chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from 80 degrees near the coast to 60 degrees in the state’s panhandle.
