Jerusalem —
Israel faces weeks and possibly months of political deadlock after final results showed there was no clear winner in the election.
Neither of the two main blocs, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, and the other led by its main rival, Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party, has reached the 61-seat majority needed to form a government in Israel’s 120-member parliament.
So how is a new government established?
Indeed, deep political and ideological divisions make seemingly easy coalitions nearly impossible, and it doesn’t seem to be easy.
Still, it is possible, even if the result is a tenuous alliance that lasts only a year or so in power. If party leaders don’t figure it out within a 12-week grace period, Israelis will go back to the polls.
Here are some scenarios where you might be able to avoid it.
On paper, the opposition’s surest path to unseating Netanyahu as prime minister is built on cooperation between Jews and Arabs. And that’s the biggest obstacle.
Two of the opposition coalition’s right-wing leaders, former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former defense minister Avigdor Liberman, oppose any government that relies on the two main Arab parties in parliament, the United List and Ra’am, whether within the coalition or as outside supporters of a minority government. Both leaders have hardened their positions since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.
Only one government in Israel’s history has enjoyed the full participation of Arab political parties. Mr. Raam was part of the eight-party coalition government that succeeded in ousting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2021, but it collapsed after one year in office.
Even without forming a government, opposition parties could work together and leverage their parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key positions, thereby restraining Prime Minister Netanyahu’s interim government from continuing in power. However, the prospects of forming a coalition to replace him as Israel’s leader remain highly complex and politically complex.
Another option would be for the two blocs to collapse in favor of a unity government. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party will certainly participate, along with some of its existing coalition partners and, importantly, at least one party in the opposition coalition.
In this case, Prime Minister Netanyahu is thought to be prepared to break with far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir, but not with far-right Finance Minister Bezazer Smotrich or the ultra-Orthodox parties.
But Prime Minister Eisenkot has denied meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and if he changes his mind, many Israelis eager to see Bibi’s back as an act of betrayal would think so.
In another scenario, Prime Minister Netanyahu could encourage opposition parties or individual members to defect.
However, all four opposition party leaders – Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman and Yair Golan – declared they would not be with him. And Netanyahu’s bloc is eight seats short, setting a high bar for convincing eight individual defectors.
While all these possibilities are being discussed behind the scenes, Israeli President Isaac Herzog plans to hold very public consultations with the leaders of the political parties that have entered parliament.
After seeking their opinion, he would give one of those leaders the task of forming a government. Arab parties are expected to support Eisenkot, and leader Yasharl may be asked to take the lead.
Those with consent will have 28 days to complete the work, which may be extended by 14 days if necessary.
If all else fails, the president will ask the second leader to try. They have only 28 days to resolve it.
A majority of Knesset members could then ask the president to appoint a third candidate, who would have 14 days to form a coalition government.
If none of these results in a breakthrough, another election will be held.
Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to be the best person to make this schedule work. As interim prime minister, he can afford to wait. If Eisenkot, his main rival, gets his first chance and fails, the job is likely to be taken over by him. And if he fails, a political impasse seems certain to force Israel into another election, leaving Netanyahu in an interim government for months until another government is formed.
With the results expected to return Israel to political paralysis and hold its seventh general election in eight years, there is a real possibility that new elections will be held, potentially as early as next spring.
