In recent weeks, Russian drones have attacked at least a dozen commercial ships in the Black Sea, killing more sailors than were killed during the Iran war.
Russia’s goal is to curb trade through Ukrainian ports, which export nearly all of the country’s grain. However, some attacks occurred near or within the territorial waters of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria.
Russia’s operations have accelerated over the past month, following months of attacks by Ukraine on ships using Russian ports in the Black Sea and adjacent Sea of Azov.
Russia has combined maritime and air drones several times, according to maritime and security officials. They have begun using recently developed jet-powered drones that are faster and harder to intercept, as well as drones that can attack moving targets.
A total of at least 30 sailors have been killed or missing in the recent surge in attacks, according to maritime tracking services and the Romanian and Bulgarian governments.
In the latest attack, three drones crashed into a container ship as it approached a Romanian port last week. French surveillance planes filmed a surface drone zeroing in on the ship, the Conte Ship Jet, and subsequent video showed the ship listing heavily before sinking.
The ship was just 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the Bulgarian coast at the time of the collision.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha said the increase in attacks is turning “the Black Sea into a danger zone for civilian shipping.”
Russia stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, particularly Odesa, during the summer. According to government statistics, Ukraine exported 1.09 million tons of wheat in September, half of the 2.05 million tons in the same period last year.
The Ukrainians tried to direct exports to small ports on the Danube River that border Romania, and Russian drones followed suit.
The surge in attacks began in early October, when the Turkish-owned Alpha Watan, en route from Egypt to the Romanian port of Sulina, was attacked by air force and naval drones. Nine Syrian crew members and one Egyptian were killed and the ship sank.
Six days later, 11 members of the HS Dignity crew, most of them Syrian, were killed in a nighttime collision with the ship off the coast of Bulgaria.
Syrian seafarer activist Mohammad Hajjouz told CNN that after the initial attack on Dignity, the crew saw an unmanned surface vessel approaching and then ramming the ship.
Unable to fully launch the lifeboat, the crew jumped into the water.
“They called out to each other and tried to regroup, but the seas were rough and the water was very cold, so the crew broke apart,” Hajjouz said.
Despite the increased risks, some shipping companies continue to operate in the Black Sea.
“Economic hardships are forcing seafarers to take on jobs in dangerous areas, sometimes with offers of additional pay,” Hajjouz said. “Some people are forced to work in these fields because of limited employment opportunities.”
According to Romania’s Foreign Minister Oana Silvia Toiu, four more commercial vessels were “targeted on October 15, including in Romania’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, resulting in the loss of eight lives.”
Two chemical tankers, Wine Trader and Yara J, collided and caught fire near the Sulina Canal, which connects the Black Sea to the Danube River.
According to the operator, the Wine Trader was attacked by three drones, killing six Beninese and one Russian.
According to maritime analysts at maritime intelligence firm Ambry, “Russian forces are currently attacking ships involved in Ukrainian trade within the (exclusive economic zones) of two NATO members.”
“Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default,” Ambry added, noting that several vessels were very likely targeted due to their connections to grain exports to Ukraine.
The Russian government has not acknowledged all attacks, but in several instances the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the targeted vessels were carrying “military and military cargo” for the Ukrainian military.
Europe’s response has been fragmented. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance is “already strengthening our posture along our eastern flank” as Russian attacks violate the alliance’s borders.
The Bulgarian government, which has relatively good relations with Moscow, has been reluctant to criticize Russia, but there are now signs that it and Romania will mobilize defense forces.
Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said Bulgaria has asked NATO to deploy fighter jets and anti-drone systems to strengthen its defenses, and also hopes that Bulgaria will join the NATO anti-drone initiative.
The Romanian military has begun patrolling along the coast with F-16 fighter jets. One of the aircraft shot down two latest-generation Russian drones over Romanian territorial waters in late October.
Romania also said it would accelerate the development of surveillance capabilities and equipment to counter mines and drones in the Black Sea.
However, this move is not enough to reassure shippers. Traffic to Ukraine’s ports has plummeted and insurance premiums have soared.
Last month, the Joint Warfare Committee in London, which assesses risks in the insurance market, expanded the area defined as “high risk” to include the entire Black Sea region, excluding the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia.
Rising insurance premiums are bad news for Ukraine’s important agricultural exports, 90% of which go via water. Ukraine supplies about 15% of world corn exports, 10% of wheat, and is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil.
German Foreign Minister Johann Vardepur said the Black Sea is of vital importance for global food security. But Russia “has in its sights freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the lifelines of so many people in the Black Sea,” he said last month.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has blamed both sides for the ship attack.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month: “American companies called me and said, ‘Hey, that was our oil on that ship that hit Ukraine.'”
“I don’t think Ukraine intentionally targeted them, but those ships were attacked,” he added.
Dimitar Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Program at St Anthony’s College, Oxford University, said NATO and the Black Sea countries “need to develop anti-drone defenses and the alliance needs to strengthen its airspace and land presence in Romania and Bulgaria.”
“At sea, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria can do more to strengthen freedom of navigation,” Bechev told CNN.
David Ax, author of Trench Art, a blog about the Ukraine conflict, said Ukraine and Russia are punishing each other without any lasting benefit.
This makes large parts of the Black Sea extremely dangerous for commercial ships.
CNN’s Kosta Gak contributed reporting to this story.
