Iranian hardliners, who believe Iran has already won the war with the United States, are capitalizing on President Donald Trump’s medium-term losses and demanding that he pay a higher price for exiting the conflict and a “new world order” in favor of the Islamic Republic.
Influential conservative groups have become more vocal this week, publicly calling on the U.S. government not to offer compromises in the ongoing negotiations.
Hard-liners believe the warning was directed at Iranian negotiators in a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warning against “even the slightest inclination toward submission” in a message Wednesday after President Trump’s Republican Party suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm elections.
In a phone call with Fox News, President Trump acknowledged that the Iran war was partly to blame for the Republicans’ midterm defeat, but Vice President J.D. Vance was more clear in a lengthy X post on Wednesday: “The war is the reason we lost.”
These admissions appear to have galvanized Iranian hardliners, with conservative politicians and media celebrating Trump’s midterm defeat as a victory for Iran. Hardline media outlet Raja News published a column saying the US should not be given a “way out” before “paying the price” for attacking Iran and that President Trump should not be allowed to “get away with a hasty deal”.
“The achievements of the Iranian people and the capital earned…should not be undermined by giving the other side an escape route,” the columnist wrote on Wednesday. “The only way to avoid the shadow of war is to increase power, maximize pressure on the United States and energy prices, and make our enemies regret their actions.”
Eight months after the start of the civil war, the war is currently at a stalemate, with little military action and no major diplomatic progress. For the past few weeks, Iranian negotiators have been shuttling between Tehran and Doha, with Qatari mediators trying to bridge the gap between the two sides to spark negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and reach an agreement to end the war.
“Iran’s leadership views the recent election results as vindication of its strategy toward the United States,” Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN. “As a result, Tehran’s position on the requirements of the agreement with Washington is likely to further harden.”
Azizi said it would be unrealistic for Trump to simply declare “mission accomplished” and end the war with Iran unless the U.S. president accepts concessions from Iran on its nuclear program to offset domestic backlash. His other option would be to launch a major military operation to claim he had ended the war in a strong position.
“The problem is that given the latest election results, the Iranians see no reason to offer President Trump any nuclear concessions,” Azizi said. “We also expect them to be more insistent than ever on demanding that the U.S. take the first steps before a deal becomes a reality.”
Regional officials told CNN on Thursday that the risk of another war with Iran is easing following Republican defeats in the US midterm elections, but escalation remains a possibility.
President Trump said in October that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, but he did not rule out or confirm the possibility of renewed attacks after that, threatening that Iran would expand its range of attacks in retaliation, unsettling people living in the Middle East.
Over the past week, the United States has carried out attacks on Iran’s Qeshm Island, including last night. Both sides have sought to de-escalate the attacks, seen as an attempt to maintain ongoing talks.
“We’re making a decision right now, are we going to go further? Hopefully, we don’t want to destroy the rest of this country, but we may have to,” Trump told reporters Thursday. “You’ll find out soon enough.”
Diplomatic activity across the Middle East has increased since Tuesday’s midterm elections.
On Friday, Qatar announced that President Trump called Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss de-escalation, and a day earlier Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragushi spoke with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Qatar.
Although Iranian hardliners have publicly welcomed more conflict, experts say the country’s leadership is seeking a deal with the United States that could end the war but allow Iran to emerge with new regional influence.
“It means emerging with stronger deterrence, lasting influence, and a regional order in which the United States and Israel cannot leave Iran isolated, under constant pressure, and vulnerable to attack, without facing potentially intolerable costs,” Sheena Toushi, senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told CNN.
Iran is demanding that the United States meet seven conditions before it opens the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to the war “on all fronts,” compensation, the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the lifting of sanctions. It remains unclear whether the United States will accept these demands.
The US-Israel war against Iran has destroyed major military positions and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his top commanders, nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians. The conflict inflicted heavy economic losses on the Islamic Republic and brought decades of shadowy warfare into the open.
As the conflict stalled, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran and reinstated sanctions, further straining the economy and increasing pressure on ordinary Iranians.
“The economy and infrastructure have been severely damaged, and continuing the conflict carries great risks. But that is why Iranian leaders are reluctant to relinquish their remaining influence without securing something lasting in return,” Tusi said.
Domestically, the war has exacerbated the rift between hardliners who seek further confrontation with the United States and moderates who believe diplomacy and global cooperation can ease economic pressure on Iran.
Amid domestic disagreements, Iran’s leadership has remained relatively united in its approach to the United States, prioritizing short-term tactics that raise the cost of conflict globally by attacking oil facilities in the region and disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a barrier that transported about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil production before the war.
But Iran’s greatest long-term strategy is to emerge from the war with greater influence and regional power than before.
“Iran’s government wants its neighbors to realize that their security does not depend solely on U.S. military power and that any lasting regional agreement must take into account Iran’s interests,” Tusi said. “Iran wants a settlement that shifts the strategic balance in its favor and limits the United States’ ability to isolate, pressure, and attack Iran at will.”
In his message, Khamenei said the war had brought about a “bright and hopeful dawn” and was laying “the foundations of a new world order”, offering a glimpse of the benefits Iran ultimately hopes to secure from the conflict.
But his grand ambitions will come into conflict with a U.S. president who may be determined to assert himself abroad as he faces increasing constraints at home after his election defeat.
CNN’s Becky Anderson and Nadeen Ebrahim contributed to this report.
