A poster of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hung at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters in Tokyo on Sunday, February 8, 2026. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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According to NHK’s initial forecast, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is likely to consolidate its majority in the House of Representatives, with the Liberal Democratic Party winning between 274 and 328 of the 465 seats.
This is roughly in line with opinion poll predictions, with Nikkei Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun predicting that the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Japan Restoration Party, would secure more than 300 seats in the House of Representatives.
NHK predicted that the coalition government would win, gaining up to 366 seats.
In some parts of the country, people trudged through heavy snow to vote.
Before the dissolution of parliament, the LDP-JIP coalition held a total of 230 seats, and three independent members voted for the LDP, effectively giving the ruling coalition a one-seat majority in the chamber.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the House of Representatives on January 23, but this appears to be an attempt to take advantage of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s high approval ratings to quickly strengthen the ruling party’s position in the House.
According to a poll compiled by Japanese media outlet Nippon.com, Takaichi’s support has declined slightly in recent weeks, but he remains popular heading into the election.
According to the same report, there was only one domestic opinion poll in January that showed support of 70% or more, but in December there were three polls and six polls showed support in the 60% range, an increase from four in the previous month.
On the other hand, the Chuo Shinsei-kon, which is made up of the former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, a former coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, is likely to win between 37 and 91 seats.
Before merging with Komeito, the Constitutional Democratic Party held 148 seats, and Komeito held 24 seats, making it the largest opposition party.
The election took place amid rising tensions between Japan and China and persistent concerns about the weakening yen and inflation at home.
Japan has endured 45 consecutive months of inflation above the Bank of Japan’s target, falling real wages and a persistently weak yen.
The most recent inflation rate was 2.1%, while full-year inflation reached 3.2%. Real wages will decrease year-on-year for 11 consecutive months in 2025, and on an annual basis, real wages have been decreasing every year since 2022.
In 2026, the yen depreciated further, and at one point approached the 160 yen level to the dollar. While a weaker currency benefited exporters, it also increased import inflation.
Takaichi had previously proposed a record $783 billion budget for next fiscal year, which starts April 1, on top of the $135 billion stimulus package introduced last year to help households struggling with rising costs of living.
–This is a developing story. Please check back for details.
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