U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at the Turning Point USA event at the Classical Center’s Aikins Ford Arena on April 14, 2026 in Athens, Georgia.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
President Donald Trump sent Vice President J.D. Vance to Hungary this month to boost the embattled prime minister and then to Pakistan to negotiate peace with Iran in hopes of ending a war started by the United States and Israel.
Both trips ended with visible setbacks and some awkward moments, raising questions about whether Vance’s political star was still growing or whether he was left to shoulder some of the administration’s heaviest burdens.
Mr. Vance became the face of the U.S. delegation that failed to finalize a peace deal with Iran after 21 hours of marathon negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend. Vance said the Iranian government is not willing to commit to not seeking nuclear weapons.
The meeting featured an unusual split-screen display. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were photographed together at a UFC bout in Miami while Vance delivered the news of “no deal” with Iran from the Pakistani capital.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and UFC CEO and President Dana White during UFC 327 at Caseya Center on April 11, 2026 in Miami, Florida.
Julia Demaree Nickinson | Julia Demarie Nikinson Getty Images
“I think it’s likely that Trump will play these two candidates and other candidates, including (Florida Gov. Ron) DeSantis, in a sort of reality ‘Apprentice’ show,” Marc Short, who served as chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence during Trump’s first term, said in a phone interview.
On Monday, Vance defended his visit to Iran as worthwhile, telling Fox News: “I’m not just saying things didn’t go well. I also think things went well.”
“We’ve made a lot of progress,” Vance said, noting that it’s rare for the leaders of the United States and Iran to meet at such a high level when laying out the terms of the deal.
A person familiar with the negotiations in Pakistan told CNBC on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks that the visit was longer than expected by the U.S. team, which had expected it to be just a short table-setting meeting.
White House communications director Stephen Chan said in a statement that Vance “continues to demonstrate why President Trump selected him, along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to lead the Iran negotiations.”
“His ability to tackle some of our biggest challenges head-on makes him a valuable member of an administration filled with great talent,” added Chan, who traveled to Islamabad with Vance.
The Vice President’s Office declined to comment on the matter.
A few days earlier, Vance had flown to Budapest to support Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is facing re-election. Despite Vance being on the ground for two days, Orbán and his group were defeated.
Vance later said he knew there was a “good chance” that Orbán, a right-wing populist who champions “illiberal democracy,” would be defeated. But he said the visit was worthwhile because the prime minister had been a good partner to him and President Trump.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance (R) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán appear on stage together during the Friendship Day event held at MTK Sports Park in Budapest, Hungary on April 7, 2026.
Jonathan Ernst | AFP | Getty Images
Vance, who converted to Catholicism in 2019, has also been repeatedly asked to comment on President Trump’s harsh criticism of Pope Leo XIV over the pope’s opposition to the Iran war.
In an interview with Vance in the Fox, he largely dismissed the disagreement as a minor issue, but also suggested that the Vatican should not get involved in U.S. policy issues, at least in some cases.
Asked again about the pope at a Turning Point USA event in Georgia on Tuesday, Vance said he is careful when discussing public policy and that Leo should be similarly “careful when talking about theological issues.”
The comments came two weeks after the release of “Communion,” a forthcoming book about Vance’s journey to the Catholic faith. Writing a book is a well-trodden path for politicians before running for high office.
Orbán’s stumble was a “failure”
Mr. Short called Mr. Orban’s stay a “misstep” and said tensions between Mr. Trump and the pope would not help Mr. Vance. But he stressed that it would be a mistake to think that Mr. Vance was fired “in the doghouse” or overshadowed by Mr. Rubio.
“As far as I can see, he’s still the front-runner among Republican primary voters,” Short said of the vice president.
Indeed, Vance has long been seen as the obvious choice to lead the MAGA political movement after President Trump leaves office. Rubio, a former Florida senator who ran for president in 2016, even told Vanity Fair last year, “If J.D. Vance runs for president, he’ll be our candidate. And I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
Recent staffing moves by the vice president’s aides have fueled speculation that the foundations are already being laid for a fundraising and policy network that could propel Vance to the presidency without relying solely on Trump’s political machine.
However, recent developments have raised questions about whether he is still the heir apparent.
Financial Times U.S. national editor and columnist Edward Luce said Tuesday that Vance is “no longer Trump’s obvious successor” following the failure of the Iran negotiations and Orban’s defeat.
“Forget that America’s top diplomat was absent from the most important bilateral meeting of Trump’s presidency. Rubio was interacting with Trump at ringside at an Ultimate Fighting Championship match at the exact moment Vance announced the collapse,” Ruth wrote.
Vance’s political opponents, including anti-Trump commentators and Democrats such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, took the opportunity to ridicule him.
Ruth noted that Vance, a former critic and then supporter of President Trump, praised the Republican leader primarily for non-interventionist reasons. The New York Times reported last week that Vance was deeply skeptical of starting a war with Iran and had tried to prevent it.
Asked about the report in a Fox interview on Monday, Vance did not deny it, but instead said he was advising the president on the basis that his advice would be kept private. He added that he agrees “100 percent” with President Trump that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.
Meanwhile, CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported last week that Mr. Vance’s overall approval rating has fallen, tied with Mr. Trump’s, to the worst of any modern vice president so far in his term.
And while a recent poll of Conservative Political Action Conference attendees reportedly showed that Vance remains the front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, his lead has declined since last year, while Rubio’s support has widened.
