Trump-Xi China summit: Focus on trade, Iran and Taiwan

President Donald Trump is set to meet directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a high-stakes summit.

The meetings in Beijing, scheduled for Thursday and Friday, could be a watershed moment for the rival superpowers, whose fragile relationship has been soured by a spate of economic and political disputes in the past year alone.

The protracted war with Iran and the long-standing dispute over Taiwan are also expected to have a major impact on talks between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Each of these thorny issues affects not only Washington and Beijing, but also the rest of the world.

“The stakes are very high,” said Arthur Dong, a China expert and professor of strategic economics at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

Trump has a penchant for hyperbole. “Great things will happen for both countries!” he wrote in a Truth social post on Monday.

But for China, Trump’s visit is just the latest in a series of high-profile meetings with geopolitical implications. Iranian officials met with Chinese officials in Beijing last week, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit the city in the days after Trump leaves office.

Analysts on U.S.-China relations say they are keeping expectations low for the outcome of the talks because both countries have incentives to de-escalate tensions and avoid international incidents.

Kyle Chan, an expert on U.S.-China relations at the Brookings Institution, said Trump and Xi “want to reaffirm their relationship and build that kind of stability.” “Everything else is gravy.”

The White House is framing the meeting in terms of trade and the U.S. economy.

White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly told reporters on Sunday that President Trump’s main goal is to continue to “rebalance our relationship with China and prioritize reciprocity and fairness to restore America’s economic independence.”

The stakes at the summit are high, and every word that comes out of each leader’s mouth will be analyzed. Here are some things to keep in mind:

Days after the United States and Israel struck Iran for the first time on February 28, some experts thought the attack might boost Trump’s support for a meeting with President Xi Jinping, then scheduled for late March or early April.

Less than two weeks later, President Trump said the United States had asked China to postpone the summit in light of the Iran war.

Some believe China is in an advantageous position, as the war is now far longer than the Trump administration’s previous predictions of four to six weeks.

“It will give China some leverage,” Dong said, noting that China is Iran’s largest trading partner and largest buyer of Iranian crude oil.

“China has tremendous influence over Iran,” he said. If President Trump seeks to end the current conflict, “China will definitely have a role to play.”

China has avoided direct involvement in the war, but last week it engaged in diplomatic activities, including hosting Iran’s foreign minister for the first time since hostilities began.

But President Trump’s political standing seems increasingly tied to the conflict.

The war caused a historic global energy supply shock, sending prices for oil, gas, fertilizer, and other products soaring in the United States and around the world. As gasoline prices in the United States soar, President Trump’s approval rating has declined among Americans for whom high prices are a top concern. According to many polls, Americans also oppose the war itself, which could further tighten President Trump’s political flexibility.

Dong also said that U.S. efforts in Iran have shifted focus away from the Pacific Ocean, creating a potential vulnerability in Taiwan, a U.S. ally and major semiconductor manufacturer, that China could soon seek to exploit.

“If China is considering an attack, now may be a good time to do so,” he said.

Even if China does not take that action, there are other Taiwan-related tripwires that Trump will have to avoid during his time with Xi.

Chinese people are “very focused” on “all the language changes by President Trump regarding Taiwan,” Chan said.

The United States has a nuanced position on Taiwan, acknowledging that Beijing believes it is part of China, and insisting there is only one. But it also maintains strong, albeit unofficial, commercial and cultural ties with Taipei, and remains vague about whether it would defend Taiwan if it were attacked.

Trump is often outspoken in his public statements and is known for going on long, off-the-cuff tangents, but deviating too much could put him at risk of walking a diplomatic tightrope.

“There are concerns in Washington that President Trump might make some comments or agree to a change in language about how the United States views Taiwan’s status, which would be consistent with what the Chinese government wants,” Chan said.

China could use such deviations to strengthen its position against Taiwan, he said.

President Trump offered an example of how the situation could play out when asked Monday at the White House whether he expected Taiwan to feature in his meeting with President Xi.

“Well, that always comes to mind,” he said, before quickly turning the conversation to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he frequently claims had he been president at the time, the war would never have started.

“Taiwan, I think of it a little bit like that,” he said. “We have the right president. I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think we’ll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi, but (President Xi) knows that I don’t want something like that to happen.”

Trump also noted that China is geographically much closer to Taiwan than the United States, adding, “Taiwan has a lot of support from Japan and other countries in the region.”

Asked whether the United States should continue selling arms to Taiwan, Trump said: “President Xi would like us not to do that, and I’m going to have that discussion. It’s one of the many things I’m going to talk about.”

Trump added that he has a good relationship with Xi, calling him a “great person.”

A senior U.S. official told reporters on a phone call to preview the trip that the U.S. does not anticipate any changes in its policy toward Taiwan.

Geopolitical turmoil may be hogging the spotlight, but the fraught economic relationship between the United States and China is expected to be a key theme at the summit.

The United States and China were locked in a bitter trade war last year, with much of the conflict centered on President Trump’s aggressive and transformative tariff policies and China’s retaliation.

Tensions subsided in the fall following talks between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators. Trump’s liberal use of tariffs was curtailed in February when the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global “reciprocal” tariffs were unconstitutional.

Some U.S. companies are now hoping to incorporate the Trump-Xi summit into new purchasing contracts.

The White House announced Monday that top executives including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg will be heading to China this week as part of a U.S. delegation.

This entourage of more than a dozen business leaders is smaller than the one that accompanied President Trump on his trip to Saudi Arabia last year. At that time, more than 30 American business executives accompanied him.

Ortberg said on an earnings call late last month that China could soon order a “large amount” of planes, potentially breaking a long drought for the U.S. aircraft giant due to Chinese purchases from rival Airbus.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, who was also in attendance, told Bloomberg in November that her company was receiving renewed interest from Chinese investors.

Experts also expect President Trump and President Xi Jinping to announce that China will buy soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States that the Chinese government boycotted during the trade war, causing pain for American farmers.

“Americans can expect the president to get a better deal on behalf of our country,” White House official Kelly said Sunday.

Expected topics of discussion include the creation of a bilateral council tasked with managing trade between the two countries, and a separate group aimed at “providing an intergovernmental forum to discuss investment-related issues,” he said.

“The two countries will also discuss additional agreements on industries ranging from aerospace to agriculture and energy,” Kerry said.

Aside from progress on a trade deal with China, one of the Trump administration’s biggest hopes for the summit may be a deal on rare earths used in the burgeoning semiconductor industry.

China tightened export controls on valuable materials last year, escalating tensions with the United States.

“I think ultimately that’s what drives the Trump administration’s eagerness to have a good relationship with China,” Zhang said.