President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, clearly linking the timing of possible further military action to the domestic political calendar.
“We have no intention of attacking Iran at any point before the midterm elections,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that the United States was having “productive discussions” with the Iranian government.
President Trump’s declaration came after he told reporters late Wednesday that his administration was considering a new attack on Tehran before the election, leading to a rise in oil prices on fears of further escalation. brent crude oil Prices rose more than 4% on Thursday to more than $104 a barrel.
President Trump said the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will continue and reiterated that Iran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
Within a day, his attitude changed. President Trump said at a campaign rally Wednesday night that a deal with Iran was “not really what we wanted to do.”
The more diplomatic tone comes as voters have already cast their midterm votes and public support for the war has waned. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found that only 31% of Americans support U.S. military action against Iran, down from 37% in March, but 83% expect the conflict to be prolonged.
The effects of the war caused fuel prices to rise, further exacerbating the vulnerability of Republicans struggling to maintain control of Congress. Poll after poll ranks the cost of living as voters’ top concern heading into the Nov. 3 election.
Gasoline prices are up about 40% from a year ago, according to AAA data. The national average on Thursday was $4.36 a gallon, up from $2.98 a gallon in late February, just before the war began.
Political influence is also visible in election activities. Many Republican candidates in competitive congressional races have often sought to distance themselves from President Trump over the Iran war.
Inside the White House, the election calendar has reportedly been overshadowing the administration’s Iran strategy for weeks. Reuters reported in September that Trump’s top aides were insisting on keeping the war contained until the midterm elections to limit losses for the Republican Party, but leaving behind a more aggressive attack by the United States after the votes are counted.
President Trump’s latest statement shows just that. Meanwhile, the United States is sending about 9,000 sailors and Marines and a third aircraft carrier to the region, and the Associated Press reported last week that three American aircraft carriers could be in the Middle East by the end of October.
The president also claimed Thursday that 22 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz overnight, but none entered or left Iran. CNBC has not independently verified the numbers.
About 11.3 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day spilled from the Strait in the week ending Tuesday, bringing total oil spills from the region to 20.4 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data.
– CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report
