South Texas Latino voters shift ahead of 2026 midterm election

TEXAS — Tano Tijerina had a confession to make.

“I want to tell you something I never thought I’d have to say from a stage like this,” Tijerina, a former minor league baseball player and a Texas GOP congressional candidate, said during a speech at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas. 

“I used to be a Democrat.”

The line was hardly a bombshell. Tijerina had been elected three times for Webb County judge — in 2014, 2018 and 2022 — on the Democratic ticket. And he’s made his 2024 defection a key part of his campaign in the majority-Latino, South Texas border district in which he’s running.

But Tijerina’s admission elicited shouts of “No!” and boos. Just to be sure, he quickly made clear he had kicked his old Democratic habits.

“I’m a beef-eating, truck-driving, gun-slinging, … Bible-thumping, Jesus-loving, calloused-hand cowboy that’s going to fight like hell for South Texas,” Tijerina — looking like a Texas brawler in a beige cowboy hat and a tight blue suit that hugged his biceps — thundered over a hearty round of applause.

Tijerina is part of a coalition of Hispanic and Latino voters who have long leaned Democratic but have more recently shown a willingness to vote for both parties. The group could be critical in deciding control of Congress this November.

Hispanic and Latino voters nationwide moved rightward in 2024 in surprisingly large numbers and helped deliver a second presidential term to Donald Trump. In the congressional district in which Tijerina is running, Texas’ 28th, voters opted for Trump by 7 percentage points, after backing President Joe Biden four years earlier. However, they stuck with their Democratic congressman, Rep. Henry Cuellar, whom Tijerina hopes to pick off in November, reelecting Cuellar to an 11th term.

Riding high after their 2024 romp, in which Republicans won control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, there was optimism in the GOP that the rightward turn among Hispanic voters could reflect a permanent realignment. In the past two years in Texas and Florida — states with large Hispanic populations— Republicans redrew congressional maps, banking on their continued support.

But amid anxiety over high consumer prices, Trump’s persistently low approval ratings and sentiment that immigration policies have overreached — even in South Texas, where support for a secure border is strong — enthusiasm for the GOP appears to be waning with less than a month to go before the 2026 midterm election. The districts in play there are among a small number across the U.S. that could help decide control of the next Congress.

And a recent survey conducted for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found Democratic statewide candidates in Texas were leading their Republican opponents by a 2-to-1 margin among likely Hispanic voters. And an NBC News/Telemundo poll of Latino voters across the U.S., released Oct. 4, found 27% of those surveyed approved of Trump and 59% said they’d prefer Democrats control Congress.

Trump, at a White House Hispanic Heritage Month event in September that was meant to shore up support from the demographic, invited attendees to tour the construction site for his new ballroom, while largely glossing over election issues such as immigration and the economy.

“Latino voters are pissed,” Chuck Rocha, a Democratic political strategist who is consulting for campaigns in Texas, including for state Rep. James Talarico in his run for U.S. Senate, told CNBC. “Right now, we benefit from them being pissed at Donald Trump.”

This could spell trouble for candidates such as Tijerina, whose district is listed as “lean D” by the Cook Report.

It’s also a challenge in other majority-Latino border districts for Republicans such as Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Eric Flores. Flores is an Army National Guard veteran and former assistant U.S. attorney who is hoping to oust Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District. De La Cruz is attempting to stave off a potent challenge in the neighboring 15th District from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who is barnstorming the district one quinceañera at a time.

The Flores-Gonzalez and De La Cruz-Pulido races are both “toss ups,” according to the Cook Report. Those two House races, as well as the Cuellar-Tijerina race, are among the closest in the country and will be crucial as Republicans hope to cling to narrow majorities in both the House and Senate.

Tijerina dismissed the idea that Republicans would lose their newfound grip on Latino voters.

“That’s what the media would like for you to hear,” he said. “But in all reality, what has the Democratic Party done for Latino voters? Or for anybody for that matter?”

‘How many guns do you own?’

Tijerina has his hands full. Cuellar is an institution in South Texas and an anomaly in modern Democratic politics. And he’s clear-eyed about why Democrats lost some Hispanic and Latino voters.

“Some years ago, Democrats could not say two words: ‘border security.’ Everything was ‘well, you know, it’s a broken immigration system,'” Cuellar told CNBC in his office in downtown Laredo, the largest city in Webb County, which makes up much of his district.

Cuellar said Democrats have “got to be able to talk (about) what I call kitchen-table, moderate positions. We can’t take extreme positions as Democrats.”

He’s seen some of what he considers improvement. And candidates such as Talarico and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for governor, are performing well with Hispanic voters, according to polling from the Cook Report, in a year when Democrats hope to win statewide for the first time since 1994.

Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist who predicts a big shift back toward Democrats this cycle, said that doesn’t mean that Latino voters “are back in bed with the Democrats.”

“They’ve been moving away for a decade for a reason,” Madrid said. “And if things weren’t so bad right now, then you would be seeing a much higher level of Republican baseline than you’ve seen over the decades.”

Trump won roughly 55% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024, up 14 points from 2020 and hitting a new high for a GOP candidate in Texas, according to exit polling by the Texas Politics Project. And Webb County — which voted for Biden by more than 23 points in 2020 — backed a Republican for president for the first time since William Howard Taft in 1912.

Cuellar, meanwhile, bested his opponent by more than 5 percentage points.

A former attorney who was born in Laredo, Cuellar has easily won reelection for most of the past two decades, finding success in part as a master of retail politics and as a reliable source of federal dollars for his district. If Democrats win a majority next Congress, Cuellar is in line to chair the influential House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security. 

By frequently bucking his party, he said, he’s avoided the political pitfalls that have hampered other Democrats in recent cycles.

Cuellar has said he is “pro-life” and “support(s) the Second Amendment.” He has backed harsher penalties for some immigrants who reenter the U.S. after being deported. And in September, he was one of just eight Democrats to join Republicans in a symbolic vote condemning socialism.

He also came under fire after a 2024 indictment for money laundering, wire fraud and bribery. Prosecutors alleged he and his wife funneled roughly $600,000 in bribes from Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank through shell companies owned by his wife. The Cuellars denied the charges, and Trump ultimately pardoned the couple.

When asked by CNBC about the indictment, Cuellar pointed to his record supporting the district.

Despite the charges, his reputation doesn’t appear to have taken a major hit around Laredo, where earlier this year, a terminal at Laredo International Airport was named in his honor. Ahead of talking with CNBC, Cuellar was at Laredo College, of which he is an alumnus, announcing $772,700 in federal funding for a homeland security training program.

Cuellar attributed his success to knowing how to relate to his constituents.

“You just got to understand in South Texas, where you’re at,” Cuellar said. “You don’t ask, ‘Do you own a gun?’ The question is: ‘How many guns do you own?'”

Nuanced views on immigration

Laredo sits on the Rio Grande across from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico. The two cities are collectively known as “Los Dos Laredos,” and their cultures and economies are closely intertwined. Many Laredo residents cross the border to run errands, taking advantage of lower grocery prices and a favorable exchange rate on the Mexican side of the river.

The area is hot and dry, and the landscape is mainly brushland. Laredo boasts a bustling commercial border crossing, and small businesses and Mexican restaurants dot the downtown. The sounds of spoken Spanish emanate from the sidewalks and San Agustin Plaza. Nearly 95% of the population is Hispanic or Latino, according to the U.S. Census. 

It’s a part of Texas where immigration policy is crucial.

“A lot of these Latino voters have nuanced views of immigration policy,” said Erin Covey, who leads the Cook Report’s coverage of the House. “They didn’t like the Biden administration’s border security policies, and they want strong border security, particularly those voters who live near the border.”

Trump made securing the border a pillar of his 2024 campaign and has continued to use rhetoric and set policy that critics argue demonizes immigrants and supporters praise as tough on people coming to the country illegally.

Tijerina lists immigration policy as a GOP strength.

“Do you see anybody crossing our border?” he said when asked about what Trump has delivered. “Border security has been just unbelievable, and we owe him thanks for that.”

Asked whether Trump had gone too far in his immigration crackdown, Tijerina demurred. “Look, I can’t answer. In all reality I don’t know a lot of the details,” he said.

Sentiment on the ground is mixed, even among Trump supporters.

For Daniel Lopez Jr., the son of Mexican immigrants and a Webb County restaurateur who said he voted for Trump three times, immigration enforcement is personal.

He said he has siblings who have been deported in the last two years, putting emotional and financial strain on his family, and believes some Latinos are being profiled by border agents.

Still, he’s critical of Biden’s immigration policy and said he supports a strong border.

“Twenty years ago, Mexico was different. Violence has stirred up a lot of people leaving the country,” Lopez said. “You don’t know if those people are good or bad.”

While immigration could be a key factor in Texas this November, Lopez said he’s most concerned about rising costs.

A May poll by Latino civil rights advocacy organization UnidosUS found Texas Hispanic voters rated cost of living and inflation, the economy and jobs/wages, and healthcare above immigration among their election priorities. This tracks with national polling, which shows affordability leading all other issues for voters.

Lopez said his restaurants have been hurt by higher prices and fewer patrons. He said he’s unhappy with the economic pressures he’s facing, but he’s also not certain Democrats would bring prices down. Lopez declined to say how he’ll vote this November.

“We’re feeling the pinch. I can’t give raises right now,” Lopez said. “You can go to our grocery stores, and there’s no more carne asada. Everyone’s doing hot dogs and burgers now because it’s too expensive.”

‘Rein this guy in’

Laredo was a sleepy border town when Lou Meier, who said he’s a lifelong Republican, arrived with his family in the 1960s. There were more unpaved roads and a less robust middle class, he recalled. 

But as the city blossomed — its population is now nearly 270,000 — the political culture remained fairly static.

“It’s basically a Democrat city and has been forever. Going back to (President Lyndon B. Johnson) and before that, the Democrat party nationally could always count on getting the votes from South Texas,” said Meier, who had moved away from Laredo but returned four years ago to retire. “The Republican vote that happened to elect Trump was unexpected by many voters.”

Meier said he voted for Trump in 2024. He said Latino voters in South Texas, including him, rejected Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 because of what the voters viewed as lax border policies. And he’s frustrated by some of the progressive positions Democrats have staked out in recent years.

“How many genders have we now created?” Meier said. “I think that’s foolishness, and that basically comes from the Democrat side.”

But Trump’s second term hasn’t played out how Meier imagined it would. He said he’s embarrassed by the Trump administration’s foreign policy. He’s concerned about the hollowing out of the federal government. And he, like many people, is struggling with the cost of gas and other consumer prices.

“I’m ashamed. He’s made us look bad, not only here but around the world,” Meier said of Trump. “Somebody needs to rein this guy in, and I don’t think the Republicans have the bravery to do it.”

“I’m just very disappointed in my party.”