Why broadcast television still accounts for the majority of political ad spending

While advertising dollars are increasingly shifting to streaming and digital platforms, political ad wars are still being fought over free-to-air broadcasts.

Television broadcasters will account for the lion’s share of political ad spending ahead of the midterm elections, according to advertising intelligence firm AdImpact.

The 2025-26 election cycle is expected to be the largest on record, with total spending expected to be $11.6 billion. This is higher than the $11.2 billion spent on advertising during the 2024 presidential campaign and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterm elections.

According to AdImpact research, an estimated $5.6 billion (48%) in ad spending will be spent on broadcasters ahead of the midterm elections.

“This is still a local game,” StoneX equity research analyst Daniel Cournos said in an interview. “Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win in the counties. And if you have to win in the counties, you have to appeal to the voters in those counties.”

Broadcast viewers — those who watch NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX or their local affiliates — are generally more politically active, Kurnos said. “Respond to demonstrations that vote.Respond to important votes.”

As a result, political advertising has become one of the last bastions of broadcast dominance.

Broadcasters are expected to account for about half of this period’s political ad spending, but only 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general advertising spending projected for this year in the U.S., according to Magna data released by S&P Global in July.

Terry Nelson, a founding partner at Plus Communications and national policy director for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign, told CNBC that broadcast spots allow political strategists to reach large numbers of voters “as efficiently as possible from a cost standpoint.”

Cord cutting has changed the television landscape as customers ditch cable, but broadcasting remains free and widely accessible.

Broadcast, which delivers local news, sports, classic game shows like “Wheel of Fortune” and national networks, accounted for more TV time than cable in July, according to Nielsen’s latest monthly streaming report, “The Gauge.” This category accounted for 19.5% of TV usage and cable for 18.7%. Streaming was by far the leading TV usage at 49%.

Nelson noted that broadcast remains particularly good at delivering high ratings for live sports.

“If you think about NFL audiences, for example, it’s still going to reach a large portion of the population,” he said. “So no matter how you slice that demographic, whether it’s men, women, old, young, whatever, NFL games are still going to reach a large portion of all those audiences.”

Brad Saitter, CEO of TVB, a trade group representing the local broadcasting industry, summed up the strength of broadcasting during the election period as “trust, reach, and because it works.”

Saitter told CNBC in a statement that television credibility is paramount when it comes to political campaigns.

“Earning the trust of voters is the same as voting for a candidate or an issue,” Seitter said.

He also said he believes broadcast is better at promoting political candidates and issues than some digital channels.

“You may see political ads on social media, but you can’t trust the content of those ads because people have been conditioned not to trust what they see and hear on social media,” Saetter said. “Conversely, viewers trust locally broadcast television news, so when they see a political ad, they are more likely to believe the content of the ad on a platform they know has long-standing rules, regulations, and trust.”

Saetter said ads continue to appear on traditional television because there is clear evidence that political campaigns influence voting behavior.

“Nothing moves the needle in the polls like running an ad on broadcast television,” Saetter said.

According to a survey conducted by TVB, 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said broadcast or cable television is the most important advertising medium that influences how they vote.

Eric Bridges, head of performance and political demand at sell-side advertising firm Magnite, told CNBC that the perceived influence of broadcasting is tied to the platform’s long history.

“There are studies that show a correlation between the number of points you buy on TV and changes in poll numbers, because this medium has been around for about 70 years,” he said.

Still, Bridges said he believes part of his strength in broadcasting comes from muscle memory.

“A lot of campaigns and a lot of the consultants that work on those campaigns are very used to buying TVs,” Bridges said. “There’s an old adage that says no political consultant gets fired for proposing to buy more televisions.”

Broadcast companies are already feeling the benefits of rising advertising costs.

Including listed broadcast stations Nexstar Media Group, gray media, sinclair and E.W. Scrippscompanies reported strong political ad revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter and forecast continued growth into the fall as the midterm elections inch closer.

StoneX’s Mr. Kurnos told CNBC that broadcasters rely on low revenues from political advertising to manage their debt.

“They already have all the infrastructure in place for (standard advertising),” Kurnos said. “And you don’t have to be creative. You don’t have to work on sales. … So politics is just pure profiteering.”

Nexstar, which owns or operates at least 265 broadcast stations and numerous websites and mobile apps, reported its best quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Net revenue reached $1.99 billion, with advertising revenue of $862 million, according to the company’s August financial report.

Overall revenue for the second fiscal quarter was driven primarily by the corporatization of broadcast rival Tegna, which Nexstar formally acquired in March.

But even discounting the additional revenue from the merger, the company’s most recent earnings report still reported traditional Nexstar fiscal second-quarter fiscal growth driven primarily by $75 million in political advertising revenue.

Gray Media also has the potential to be a company to watch, although it is smaller than Nexstar in terms of operations, Kurnos said.

The company’s stations operate in markets with the most competitive elections and, therefore, the highest advertising costs. Cournos said Gray has been exposed to all 12 competitive Senate races and 11 gubernatorial races.

“Gray has always been the most effective political voice in the broadcast group,” he said.

Sinclair and Scripps also reported a bright spot in political advertising revenue in their most recent fiscal quarter earnings reports.

EW Scripps said political ad revenue reached a record high for the second quarter, while Sinclair said political ad revenue increased 9% from the second quarter of 2022 during the last midterm election season.

“No other medium conveys political messages as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television,” EW Scripps CEO Adam Simson said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.

At the other end of the spectrum, connected TV is the fastest growing category of political ad spending, according to AdImpact. This category includes internet-connected devices such as: apple TV or something Roku.

According to research by AdImpact, it is expected to account for 23% of advertising spending this quarter, or $2.7 billion, and is likely to continue to grow its share.

Magnite’s Bridges said the complex and rapidly changing nature of connected TV (CTV) and free, ad-supported streaming channels, also known as FAST, have so far prevented some advertisers from taking advantage of high viewership numbers.

“When you look at some of the FAST streaming services, Pluto or Tuvis, campaigns and consultants may not understand what that is,” Bridges said. “So they might say, ‘Well, if you don’t understand what it is, it’s probably not worth the investment.'”

But he said he believes political consultants are becoming increasingly sensitive to the benefits these platforms offer.

Pia Carusone, who manages SKDK’s political advertising division, told CNBC in an interview that she sees value in streaming’s ability to target specific audiences.

“If you buy NBC in New York City, for example, you’re buying an entire market,” she said of traditional advertising strategies. “Streaming and CTV platforms now allow us to offer more nuance in our targeting, so we can reach those audiences more directly.”

But ultimately, Carusone said, a political advertising strategy depends on maintaining a diverse portfolio.

“You can’t just do digital. You can’t just do linear,” she said. “Today’s blue-chip buyers are buying in all areas.”