This photo pair created on October 4, 2026 shows Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Republican), Brazilian president and Labor Party (PT) re-election candidate, and Flavio Bolsonaro, Brazilian right-wing senator and Liberal Party (PL) presidential candidate, on October 4, 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Pablo Porciuncula, Mauro Pimentel | AFP | Getty Images
Brazilians voted Sunday in a close run-off election that could shift Latin America’s largest country sharply to the right, moving it closer to the United States amid widespread conservative trends across the region.
The run-off will pit left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio pulled off a huge upset at the start of the month, defying poll predictions and taking the lead in the first round.
A victory for Mr. Bolsonaro with 45 votes would extend a wave of right-wing victories for Latino candidates friendly to President Donald Trump, while a fourth appointment for Mr. Lula would disappoint the U.S. government, which has been at odds with the administration over trade and security.
Washington denies interference allegations
Reuters on Saturday revealed President Trump’s activities within the State Department to help Bolsonaro return to power.
President Trump has so far refused to endorse any candidates. Asked who he expected to win on Sunday, Trump declined to say.
“I don’t want to get into that, but we’re watching it closely,” he told reporters in Washington.
Corruption scandals, economic instability and accusations of U.S. interference have dominated Brazil’s election campaign, which the U.S. government denies. Flavio has also promised to free his father if elected, a move that is heavily influenced by the fallout from Jair Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction for plotting a 2022 coup.
President Trump called the incident a “witch hunt” and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil in 2025, a decision apparently related to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial. This was later watered down, but President Trump imposed new taxes on Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices.
Lula has accused the Trump administration of approaching the Bolsonaro family as part of an attempt to sway the election, while labeling tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying.
“We can’t just hand over Brazil,” said Elenildes dos Reis, a 60-year-old São Paulo lawyer who voted for Lula, adding that Lula’s victory would be a means to confront Trump and what she called the rise of fascism.
“It will not only be a victory for us, it will be a victory for the world,” she said.
On economic issues, Lula has struggled to win support from voters struggling with high living costs and heavy household debt, despite declining inequality and unemployment. Endemic gang violence also weighs heavily on voters’ minds.
President Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on concerns about the cost of living, pledging a tough approach to fighting crime, including promising maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sex crimes.
“We need change,” said José Carlos Jara, a 61-year-old retired São Paulo resident who works in the medical field and voted for Bolsonaro. He called Brazil’s minimum wage “disgraceful” and hoped the senator would address security issues and do more for retirees.
In Rio de Janeiro, Alba Marquez, a 75-year-old retiree, said she voted for Mr. Bolsonaro rather than against Lula’s Labor Party.
“I can’t stand another 40 years of a man who says he’s going to fix Brazil. It’s the same promise,” she said.
Candidates are competing
As he cast his vote in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, Bolsonaro called on people to vote “rain or shine.”
Lula voted in São Bernardo do Campo, near São Paulo, and thanked his supporters. “I can never repay what the people have done for me these past few days,” he told reporters.
Opinion polls show that the candidates will go into the runoff nearly evenly matched.
But historical precedent favors Bolsonaro, as no candidate has ever won the presidency by finishing second in the first round.
Bolsonaro received 47% of the first vote, followed by Lula with 45%.
The senator’s first-round victory sent Brazil’s markets and currency soaring on hopes for pro-business reforms.
His success in the first round could translate into parliamentary elections for his Liberal Party and other right-wing politicians, opening him up to legislation or complicating Lula’s rule.
