The icebreaker Thor (right) is in the port of Sabetta on the Kara Sea coastline on the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic Circle, about 2,450 kilometers from Moscow.
Kirill Kudryavtesev | AFP | Getty Images
China and Russia are increasing their control of the Northern Sea Route, turning the rapidly warming region into a new geopolitical battleground with Europe.
Moscow and Beijing agreed last week to expand cargo traffic along the Arctic shipping corridor, expand services between their ports and deepen cooperation in building polar ships.
The agreement comes after the EU announced a new Arctic strategy aimed at countering Russia and China’s growing influence in the region.
The competing moves highlight how the once remote region is turning into a strategic interest, but analysts said Europe’s ability to counter the emerging Sino-Russian partnership remains limited, given Russia’s control of key shipping routes and China’s growing commercial influence.
Europe cannot realistically counter Chinese and Russian domination of Arctic shipping within a meaningful period of time.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero
APAC & MEA Chief Economist, Natixis CIB
That’s because Russia controls the Northern Sea Route, including navigation permits, transit fees and a vast fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers, while China provides the cargo, ships and industrial capacity needed to develop the route, he added.
In contrast, Europe has limited icebreaker capacity and Arctic infrastructure, and despite its status as a major destination market, has little leverage to challenge partnerships.
New geopolitical fault lines?
The Northern Sea Route is serving as an increasingly attractive alternative as turmoil in the Middle East reveals the fragility of established shipping routes.
According to data provided by Fertmax FZCO, cargo traveling between Asia and Europe via the Northern Sea Route could be reduced to 18-22 days, about 35% faster than the 28-35 days it takes via Suez.
For Russia, which has limited access to European markets due to Western sanctions, the route presents an opportunity to shift energy exports to Asia, according to industry sources interviewed by CNBC.
On the other hand, it provides another trade artery for Beijing that could reduce its dependence on traditional maritime choke points.
David Roche, a veteran strategist at Quantum Strategy & Geonomics, said the importance of the Arctic lies less in its potential to transform global shipping and more in its deep economic dependence on Russia and China.
“The importance of the Arctic route is that Russian energy shipments will be directed to China, which will increase China’s control over Russia in that Russia will become more dependent on China in terms of selling energy to compensate for losses in the European gas market,” Roche stressed.
The EU underlines the strategic value of the region in its strategy and recognizes the growing challenges, as noted by EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kalas last week.
As Russia and China expand their footprint and ambitions, the Arctic has become the front line of global power competition.
Kaja Karas
European Union Foreign Policy Director
Can Europe fight back?
This does not mean that Europe has no influence.
The EU’s new strategy calls for expanding Europe’s icebreaker capacity, strengthening maritime surveillance and developing infrastructure to connect Arctic trade networks to European markets.
It also proposes stronger protection for maritime security sites and undersea cables, reflecting growing concerns about Russian military activity and threats to critical infrastructure.
But experts said these strengths may not be enough to overturn the structural advantages enjoyed by Russia and China.
García Herrero said Europe’s influence rests primarily on its status as a major destination market and the presence of major shipping companies, which have avoided the Arctic due to environmental and commercial risks.
Without a sustained industrial push, which the EU is only just beginning to discuss, Europe can raise the commercial and regulatory costs of this line, but cannot prevent or replace the Sino-Russian partnership that currently runs it.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero
APAC & MEA Chief Economist, Natixis CIB
Europe also faces a strategic dilemma. In other words, involvement in emerging corridors could deepen Russia’s dependence on Russian-controlled infrastructure while seeking to reduce its economic influence.
Daeijing Li, former global head of research at Feltmax FZCO, said Western operators face sanctions, insurance and compliance complexities, which makes this route much less attractive for Chinese companies.
“The Arctic brings diversity, not independence,” he said.
A threat to global trade?
Despite the geopolitical attention it receives, the Arctic region remains a marginal player in global shipping.
Roche estimates that Arctic trade currently accounts for around 0.3% of global shipping and could reach around 1% by 2030.
Data calculated by the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom and CNBC based on United Nations trade and development statistics similarly supports the 0.3% figure, indicating that 37.02 million tonnes of cargo will pass through the Northern Sea Route in 2025, compared to 12.72 billion tonnes of global seaborne trade in 2024.
According to the High Northern Logistics Center, only 3.2 million tons, or less than one-tenth of the cargo involved, involved vessels traveling the entire route rather than to or from the Russian Arctic.
But traffic may be increasing, according to the latest CHNL data for September 2026.
The route has seen 104 transit voyages carrying an estimated 3.7 million tonnes of cargo by the end of September, exceeding the 3.2 million tonnes recorded for the entire 2025 sailing season.
Much of the existing shipments consist of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and other goods rather than international container shipping.
But this route faces major commercial hurdles. Ice conditions limit navigation for much of the year, while private vessels, insurance premiums and Russian transit fees can eat away at savings from short voyages.
Kpler analyst Matthew Wright said the route was still not suitable as a replacement for established shipping routes, as operators needed reliable year-round service.
Lee similarly expects the Arctic to develop primarily as a seasonal express route for selected high-value cargo, rather than as an alternative to Suez.
However, climate change could shift the balance in the long term.
A study published in the WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs predicts that melting Arctic ice could increase the annual shipping capacity of the Northern Sea Route from 127 million tonnes to 463 million tonnes by 2050.
