Voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide control of Congress in midterm elections that could have major implications for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
Republicans hold majorities in the House and Senate amid public frustration with high consumer prices, the long war with Iran, perceptions of government corruption and an immigration crackdown that engulfs American citizens and those legally living in the country.
Democrats hope to take advantage of President Trump’s persistently low approval ratings and are widely expected to retake the House of Representatives, potentially making House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D.N.Y.) the first black Speaker of the House in U.S. history.
The outlook for the Senate is more uncertain, but Democrats are making late gains and are becoming more competitive in states that until recently seemed out of reach.
Tuesday’s election results could signal a shift in power in Washington and have significant implications for President Trump’s final two years in the White House. Here’s what to look out for:
1) Would you support Republican gerrymandering?
At President Trump’s request, several Republican-led state legislatures began an unusual mid-decade redistricting process in 2025 to redistrict congressional districts to make formerly Democratic districts more winnable in 2025-2026.
Democrats responded by setting off a redistricting arms race that, along with an April Supreme Court decision that weakened a key provision of the Voting Rights Act and endangered black-majority districts in the South, gave Republicans a paper advantage heading into the midterm elections.
But victory in these redistricted districts is far from certain, and many of those seats are up for grabs in states including Texas and Florida.
In these two states alone, Republicans reshuffled nine seats, increasing the Republican weight. But according to Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report, Republicans are likely to win only three of them.
Jeffries told CNN on Oct. 26, “The Republican dummy mantle in states like Texas and Florida is falling apart. There’s no situation where Republicans win five seats in Texas. There’s no situation where Republicans win four seats in Florida.”
This strategy relied in part on Latino and Hispanic voters, especially in Texas. Although they shifted to the right in 2024, they have recently shown signs of cooling toward the Republican Party, at least in this election.
In an Oct. 16 Pew Research Center survey, 51% of registered Hispanic voters said they would prefer a Democratic candidate in 2026, compared to 24% who said they would prefer a Republican candidate.
2) States that were previously thought to be unreachable are still active today.
Democrats weren’t expected to compete in states like Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina, but Trump’s pushback has put the Senate race in jeopardy.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is fighting to retain his seat against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton in a race that the Cook Report switched to a “toss-up” on Oct. 6. Kansas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932.
In ruby-red Mississippi, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is still expected to win. But Democratic challenger Scott Colom faced a competitive race. The Cook Report changed the race from “certain R” to “likely R” on October 20.
“From socialist tax hikes to transgender surgeries for children, all of the radical policies supported by Adam Hamilton and Scott Colom that galvanize DSA’s base don’t get a head start in red states like Kansas and Mississippi, where the number of sensible voters continues to outnumber Democrats,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement, referring to the Democratic Socialists of America.
In South Carolina, Republican Sen. Darin Graham, who was appointed to finish the term of his brother Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July, is running a tighter-than-expected race against Democrat Annie Andrews. The Cook Report also downgraded the Republican race, changing it from “Strong R” to “Lean R” on October 20th.
At the same time, Democrats face the possibility of underperforming in states where they have historically performed well, such as Minnesota and New Hampshire. Losses there may offset gains elsewhere.
New Hampshire Senate polls show Representative Chris Pappas with a narrow lead over John E. Sununu, whose brother and father was governor. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor and Democratic Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan is in a close race against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster.
The Cook Report rates both New Hampshire and Minnesota races as “Lean D.”
3) Democrats focus on Texas
A statewide victory for Democrats in Texas could be a big morale boost for the party, which narrowly missed winning a Senate seat in 2018 in a state that hasn’t been competitive in recent years.
When President Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is struggling in the Republican primary against Sen. John Cornyn, state Rep. James Talarico faced a fascinating matchup against an underdog candidate. Polling averages show Talarico with a narrow lead.
This race is also key to gaining control of the Senate. To win a majority, Democrats would need to flip four Republican seats while retaining all the seats they currently control. It would help if he won a Texas Senate seat for the first time since the 1980s.
But Paxton, plagued by scandal and trailing in the polls, got a lifeline from Elon Musk, who lives in Texas and has several companies headquartered there. Mr. Musk has spent at least $189.6 million as of late October to help Mr. Paxton get elected, part of a larger effort of about $366 million to help elect Republicans nationwide.
Mr. Talarico is a Democratic candidate for state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who is within striking distance of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term in office. On October 1, the Cook Report changed the race from “leaning Republican” to “leaning Republican.”
4) Big night for progressives?
This election will be a test for the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Nowhere is that more evident than in Michigan.
Abdul El-Sayed said he is a capitalist and has no ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, but has ties to the group and its most prominent figures. But he is seen as a surrogate for the group, and his performance in the Michigan Senate race against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers could have a major impact on candidates affiliated with the Democratic Party’s dominant left and DSA.
El-Sayed is a former public health official who emerged from a competitive primary race against U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. He has followed through on populist campaign promises such as single-payer health care, higher taxes on billionaires and big corporations, and an eradication of corruption, including a ban on corporate PAC donations.
El-Sayed has attracted support from young progressive voters, but Republicans have attacked him as too radical, and some moderate Democrats have warned that his victory could lend legitimacy to the DSA movement and ultimately hurt the party.
“Democrats have an opportunity this cycle, and they shouldn’t honor that opportunity by moving to the far left,” said Lucas Holtz, senior political adviser at Third Way, a center-left think tank. “If they want to maintain their penetration with Latino voters this cycle, and the working-class voters they’ve bled out cycle after cycle, they shouldn’t misread their mandate.”
In an unexpected development Sunday, Mr. Stevens endorsed Mr. Rogers after a rift with Mr. El-Sayed centered around disagreements over U.S. support for Israel.
5) A referendum on President Trump?
Mr. Trump has dominated the Republican Party for much of the past decade, but is on the decline and moving into lame-duck territory, facing a barrage of congressional scrutiny and investigations if Democrats win the gavel in one or both chambers.
His handling of foreign policy, tariffs, the economy and immigration has drawn scrutiny and could hurt Republican candidates.
Ahead of the election, a growing group of Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the president. If the blue wave materializes and Republicans lose the House, Senate, or both, some speculate that he could lose even more supporters as the party looks toward a post-Trump world in 2028 and beyond.
But Brittany Martinez, executive director of Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), says even if Republicans lose, a flip to Trump is not a given.
“A big Republican loss would give more members of the party a reason to challenge Trump, but it doesn’t automatically give them the courage to do so,” Martinez told CNBC. “The real test is whether Republicans acknowledge voters’ dissatisfaction with his leadership or continue blaming everyone else.”
