Iran and the United States have accepted a two-week ceasefire and claimed victory in the conflict, just before US President Donald Trump’s apocalyptic deadline to wipe out Iranian “civilization” if Tehran does not agree to a deal.
The US and Israeli attack on Iran, which began on February 28, has killed at least 2,076 people, with thousands more killed across the region. The war also disrupted global energy supplies, stranded oil tankers and caused price spikes in what has been called the biggest shock in the industry’s history.
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President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday that the United States would stop bombing Iran after receiving a 10-point ceasefire proposal that he said was “workable.” The US president added that “nearly all of the various issues of the past have been agreed upon.”
Iran also said it would allow ships to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, despite angry accusations from some in the country that the government had caved to pressure.
The two sides are expected to continue talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad from Friday.
But despite the red tape, both the United States and Iran appear to have reversed course from some of their previously stated red lines to agree to Tuesday’s deal. Analysts say the impasse could resurface and complicate future talks.
Here’s what we know about what both sides wanted and what concessions have been made so far.
What are the terms of Tuesday’s agreement?
The US has agreed to halt bombing of Iran for two weeks.
“We do so because we have already met and exceeded all our military goals and are very close to a final agreement for long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East… In a two-week period, the agreement can be finalized and completed,” Trump posted.
The US president did not immediately confirm whether US negotiators would be in Islamabad.
York University political scientist Chris Featherstone told Al Jazeera: “The big win for Trump was that Iran agreed to negotiate after the threats escalated.”
“He’s making this look like a success, but in the long run he’s going to have to get some concessions from Iran to make this look like a success.”
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that if attacks on the country were halted, Iran would also halt “defensive operations” and allow Iranian forces safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
But analysts say many in Iran are expressing anger and criticizing Iran for agreeing to the cease-fire agreement, as distrust of the United States grows in the country.
“The pessimism inside Iran is probably stronger than in any other country because it was attacked twice during negotiations,” Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera.
He was referring to the US bombing of Iran during the 12-day war with Israel last June and the US-Israel airstrike on February 28. Both escalations occurred while negotiations were ongoing.
What were the previous demands of Iran and the US?
America’s 15-point plan
The US had previously announced a 15-point plan on March 25th.
It was sent to Iran through Pakistan at a time when the Iranian government denied any talks were taking place.
Although the official framework was not fully published, Iran rejected the plan as “overreach.”
According to US media reports, some of its main elements are:
A 30-day ceasefire would stop the war. The Strait of Hormuz will be immediately opened by Tehran to safe navigation. Iran will decommission its nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, in line with the US and Israeli goal of ending Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Iran forever commits not to pursue or develop nuclear weapons and will completely stop enriching uranium, even for civilian purposes. All of Iran’s existing stockpile will be handed over to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will be authorized to monitor its nuclear infrastructure. Iran will stop supplying arms and funding to regional proxies like Hezbollah. The number of ballistic missiles Iran possesses is strictly limited and can only be used for self-defense purposes. In return, the United States would lift all sanctions imposed on Iran, including the “snapback” UN mechanism that allows for the reimposition of previously lifted sanctions against Iran. The US government will also help supply electricity to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Iran’s 10-point plan
Iran also proposed a 10-point plan in response to the US outline.
On Monday, as the war entered its 38th day and President Trump threatened to blow up Iranian power plants and energy facilities in violation of international law, the US president acknowledged that the Iranian government had communicated the 10-point plan to the White House through intermediaries in Pakistan.
After the announcement, President Trump said the plan was an “important step” but “not enough.”
However, President Trump said in Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement that Iran’s offer was “viable” as the basis for a final deal.
Analysts say the plan contains several controversial points that are likely to cause U.S. and Israeli hesitation during negotiations.
Iran’s main demands are:
A fundamental promise of non-aggression by the United States. It works with the Iranian military to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This means Iran maintains influence over the waterway. Acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions against Iran. All resolutions against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have ended. Ending all resolutions against Iran by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region; Full compensation for damages suffered by Iran during the war – secured through payments to Iran by ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Release of all Iranian assets and assets frozen abroad. Ratify all of these items in a binding Security Council resolution.
What concessions have the two countries made so far?
From Iran:
Iranian authorities have previously vowed not to engage in any negotiations with the United States and to end the war only when they believe Tehran is ready and successful in deterring the United States and Israel from attacking the country again.
However, Iranian authorities subsequently succumbed to pressure from Pakistani mediators and reportedly from China to negotiate.
They also accepted a two-week ceasefire, rather than an immediate and permanent one.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had earlier on March 11 called for compensation for damage caused by Israeli and US attacks as grounds for a ceasefire. Now, Iran’s proposal suggests that it is instead willing to use tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz for reconstruction purposes.
Iran has insisted in recent days that any ceasefire should extend to a halt to attacks on regional allies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, outlining the ceasefire he helped broker, said it also covers Lebanon.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech that Lebanon was not included in the US-Iran deal. Hours later, Israel launched the largest bombing campaign of the war against Lebanon, attacking the capital Beirut, killing and wounding hundreds of people, Lebanese officials said.
It is unclear whether there was an agreement among mediators, including the United States, Iran, and Pakistan, on Lebanon’s position in the ceasefire agreement, and whether Israel is nevertheless violating it.
“This is a specific issue where Iran believes that Israel still has a veto,” Sameer Puri of King’s College London told Al Jazeera.
But on the other hand, “Iran is unlikely to let this go because it wants to show that it can still influence power politics in the Middle East despite the U.S. attack,” Featherstone said.
At least 1,530 people have died in Lebanon so far during the war.
from america
Strait of Hormuz – President Trump has demanded free and safe passage from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, including an expletive-laden social media post this week, threatening to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure if it doesn’t. He has also previously called for Iran’s “unconditional” surrender. However, Iran intends to maintain control of the strait under the announced cease-fire agreement, a sentiment shared by President Trump. Iran is expected to continue collecting tolls from ships passing through the strait and using the proceeds for reconstruction efforts. Iran’s Missile Capabilities – Throughout the war, the United States has maintained that it would continue to fight to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile program and that the program must be severely limited or dismantled in exchange for peace. But President Trump has said nothing about Iranian missiles in his repeated statements leading up to and since the ceasefire.
What’s next?
Tough negotiations are expected to begin on Friday on both sides, with analysts speculating what concessions the two sides will ultimately be prepared to make and what issues will get them off the ground.
At least one of Iran’s demands is to end the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, a no-go area for Washington.
The United States has maintained a military presence in the region for more than 65 years. As many as 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed at 19 bases in several countries, not including thousands more called up during the Iran war.
Some analysts say these bases proved to be a burden to the Gulf states during the war, making them targets of Iranian anger as Iran launched violent retaliatory attacks.
Still, “all of these countries are sovereign states and are making their own decisions,” said Izadi of Tehran University.
“What our neighbors to the south have experienced with U.S. military bases has not been good,” he noted. “But the specific concept[of US withdrawal]is something that independent governments in the Persian Gulf will have to decide for themselves.”
