US President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15, after weeks of postponement due to the US-Israel war against Iran.
The talks are expected to focus on trade relations and will be the first visit by a US president to China in about 10 years.
In recent decades, the United States and China have emerged as the world’s dominant superpowers and are often seen as locked in a contest over who will rise to the top of the global order.
By contrast, whereas a quarter of a century ago the United States dwarfed China on most key metrics, Beijing is now seen as the world’s factory, outperforming the West in many ways.
This head-to-head confrontation evaluates both countries from economic, military, resource, and technological perspectives.
Who is the world’s top trading power?
Twenty-five years ago, the United States was the world’s largest exporter, selling $729 billion worth of goods in 2001, while China ranked fourth with $266 billion, accounting for about one-third of U.S. exports, according to the World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).
At the time, only 30 countries traded more with China than the United States.
China is currently the world’s largest exporter, selling $3.59 trillion of goods annually around the world, compared to $1.9 trillion annually for the United States. Currently, 145 countries trade more with China than with the United States.
Who are the largest exporters?
In 2024, China will sell $3.59 trillion in goods and buy $2.58 trillion in goods, generating a trade surplus of more than $1 trillion, the largest of any country.
China’s main exports are:
Machinery and electrical machinery such as telephones and computers ($1.68 trillion) account for nearly one-third of total exports. Metals ($286 billion). Textiles ($268 billion).
The United States is the second largest exporter in the world. In 2024, the world sold $1.9 trillion worth of goods and bought $3.12 trillion worth of goods, creating a huge trade deficit. Since returning to the White House last January, US President Donald Trump has used the trade deficit to justify imposing trade tariffs on countries around the world.
Major U.S. exports include:
Mechanical and electrical machinery ($447 billion). Mineral products ($364 billion), including fuels, oils, waxes and their derivatives, account for almost one-fifth of total exports. Chemicals ($245 billion).
What are the US and China buying from each other?
The United States and China are important trading partners, exchanging $500 billion worth of goods by 2025, but trade has declined since the beginning of President Trump’s second term as the two countries traded retaliatory tariffs.
According to the Penn-Wharton budget model, the average effective U.S. tariff on Chinese imports is currently about 31.6%. Meanwhile, China has imposed a series of tariffs on major U.S. energy and agricultural exports, including a flat 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and surcharges on certain items. According to Reuters, the proportions range from 11% for propane and ethane to 77% for beef.
Despite this, the United States remains China’s largest trading partner, with China ranking third behind Mexico and Canada.
In 2024, the United States purchased $453 billion worth of goods from China. The main products include:
Mechanical and electrical machinery ($212 billion) Other items such as toys, bedding, and furniture ($57.9 billion) Textiles ($31.9 billion)
In the same year, China purchased $145 billion worth of goods from the United States, including:
Mechanical and electrical machinery ($30.8 billion) Mineral products, including fuels, oils, waxes and their derivatives ($24.1 billion) Chemical products ($18.2 billion)
Who has more debt?
Both the United States and China are highly indebted: the United States’ general government debt is 115% of GDP, while China’s general government debt is 94% of GDP. However, it is important to note that China’s debt is believed to be undervalued.
The 2008 global financial crisis was a turning point for the United States, with debt soaring as the government bailed out banks and provided economic stimulus.
China’s debt has also been rising, but more steadily, from about 22% of GDP in 2000 to about 34% in 2009, but then started to slope even steeper, driven primarily by infrastructure investment and local government borrowing rather than crisis spending like in the United States.
Debt levels in both countries rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic as governments launched massive stimulus packages to prop up their economies. The United States approved trillions of dollars in relief spending in the form of business loans and unemployment benefits, while China ramped up infrastructure spending.
While the U.S. national debt is now over $39 trillion, the highest level in history, the exact level of China’s government debt is even more difficult to determine.
Who will spend more on military spending?
The United States is the world’s largest military spender, outweighing China by nearly three to one in dollar terms. According to research institute SIPRI, in 2025 the United States spent $954 billion, or 3.1% of GDP, on military spending, while China spent $336 billion, or 1.7%, according to estimated figures.
Together, the United States and China account for more than half of the world’s total military spending.
The United States has a clear air power advantage, with three times as many aircraft and a much better support infrastructure. At sea, although China has more ships in numbers, the United States maintains the superiority in terms of firepower, submarines, and aircraft carriers.
Who will consume more energy?
China’s energy consumption has increased rapidly since the turn of the century as its manufacturing industry has strengthened and its economy has industrialized.
Today, China is the world’s largest energy consumer. In 2024, the country of 1.4 billion people will consume 48,477 TWh, 80% of which is produced by fossil fuels (mostly coal).
The United States is the second largest energy consumer in the world. In 2024, the country of nearly 350 million people will consume 26,349 TWh, with about 80 percent of that coming from fossil fuels, mostly oil.
But when it comes to investing in green energy, China is leading the way. According to the REN21 World Status Report, China will spend $290 billion on green energy in 2024, while the United States will spend $97 billion.
Who is leading the way in emerging technologies?
When it comes to emerging technologies, from artificial intelligence (AI) robots to electric cars, China is moving forward at breakneck speed, but there are still areas where the United States still leads.
According to Morgan Stanley, the United States leads the world in AI investment, with corporate spending amounting to $109 billion in 2024 alone, about as much as the rest of the world combined.
China also has twice as many notable AI model releases, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Meta’s Llama, compared to China’s most notable release, DeepSeek.
The United States also has an advantage in semiconductors, with Nvidia’s CUDA software platform giving American chips a significant advantage over Chinese alternatives. But both countries rely heavily on Taiwan, which produces nearly 90 percent of the advanced chips needed to develop AI.
Electric vehicles are something that China is rapidly moving forward with. Thanks to nearly $230 billion in government subsidies from 2009 to 2024, nearly half of new cars sold in China in 2024 were electric, compared to about 10% in the United States.
Who has more rare earth minerals?
China holds the world’s largest reserves of rare earth minerals, with known rare earth oxide deposits estimated to reach 44 million tons in 2024, representing just over half of the world total.
China also dominates rare earth processing globally, so even minerals mined elsewhere are often sent to China for refining, giving it influence far beyond what’s in the ground.
Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 metallic elements that are essential components of modern technology such as electric car batteries, wind turbines, smartphones, military equipment, and semiconductors.
The United States has the seventh largest rare earth reserves in the world at 1.9 million tons, less than 5% of China’s reserves, and is highly dependent on the Chinese government for rare earth imports.
Beijing has been able to outpace Washington in rare earth mining because it faces fewer obstacles. Where the United States faces regulatory and environmental concerns, China has been willing to absorb environmental and social costs. Rare earth mining is highly polluting, and the United States faces numerous lawsuits and compliance costs, making it costly to keep mines open.
Rare earths have become a major flashpoint in tense trade negotiations between China and the United States, which are expected to be revisited at a meeting this week.
Last year, President Trump threatened to impose 100% trade tariffs on China after the country restricted exports of rare earth elements and equipment. The escalation further escalated the trade war between the two superpowers, until a temporary truce was reached six months ago. China has temporarily suspended blocking exports of some rare earths.
What global groups do they belong to?
The United States and China jointly participate in many organizations, including the United Nations Security Council, the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the G20, and APEC.
Apart from this, China is part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. It is also part of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
The United States is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the OECD, the G7, the Five Eyes Alliance, and the trilateral security partnership AUKUS with Australia and the United Kingdom.
How do those growth models compare?
China’s economy is driven by the state, not by free market forces, but by heavy investment in infrastructure, industry and technology, reliance on exports and long-term national planning.
President Trump’s America First model takes a different approach. Especially the tariffs on China. Tax reduction. Deregulation. and efforts to bring manufacturing back home. He has also publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, favored one-to-one trade deals over global deals, limited immigration and pushed to reduce U.S. dependence on China.
