President Donald Trump has twice hinted at the possibility of meeting with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-de since meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week.
This will be the first direct contact between the heads of government since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. However, it remains committed to supporting the defense of self-governing democracy under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.
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In a Foreign Ministry statement on Wednesday, Taiwan’s president responded to President Trump’s comments and said he would be “happy” to speak with him.
He added that Taiwan is committed to maintaining a stable status quo in the Taiwan Strait, but “China is a destroyer of peace and stability.” The Chinese government considers Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory.
The statement comes as the White House considers a $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan.
In response, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it firmly opposes “official exchanges” between the United States and Taiwan and the sale of arms by the United States to Taiwan.
Analysts said Trump’s comments signaled he intends to break with decades of diplomatic protocol, a move likely to conflict with Beijing.
How will China react?
Given past events, the Chinese government will not be happy if President Trump were to meet or speak with the Taiwanese president.
Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, reporting from Beijing, said that when former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, her two-day visit sparked heightened tensions between the two countries.
Shortly after, China stepped up large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, and relations between China and the United States “reached rock bottom,” Yu said, indicating that “China seriously doesn’t want to see any communication between Washington and Taipei.”
In 2016, shortly after winning his first election, President-elect Trump answered a phone call from then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.
The Chinese government filed a formal diplomatic protest, accusing Trump of undermining the “One China” policy that officially recognizes the Chinese government toward Taipei. Chinese state media warned that the call could damage relations.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, told Al Jazeera that the incident had caused “an uproar” in Beijing. He added that President Trump may have forgotten about the call and the “very hostile” response from the Chinese government.
Trump said he would “probably be reminded by his staff…so I probably won’t talk to President Lai.”
Tsang said that if he speaks with Lai, Beijing’s response “will depend in part on how Donald Trump presents it.”
If Trump simply said he had spoken to Lai, the Chinese government would “react very strongly.” But if he says he spoke to Lai because Chinese President Xi Jinping “asked me to do it,” that could dampen Beijing’s response.
Analysts say that response includes Beijing’s recognition that President Trump is untrustworthy and unpredictable.
Wenti Song, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, told Al Jazeera: “The hallmark of President Trump is that he issues issues that have not been an issue before. It makes sense that he would break new ground and cross previously elusive red lines.”
Will this cancel out the goodwill from President Trump’s visit to Beijing?
President Trump visited Beijing last week and met with President Xi Jinping, accompanied by a delegation of U.S. business leaders, including the heads of Apple, Nvidia, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs.
President Trump praised Xi, saying, “It’s an honor to be your friend. The relationship between China and the United States will be better than ever.”
President Trump returned from the summit boasting of multiple trade deals, but the Chinese statement made no mention of any such deals. President Trump has also sought to avoid Taiwan publicly, ignoring reporters’ questions about the island.
But analysts say whether his apparent openness toward Taipei will end this sentiment will depend on his next actions, which are difficult to predict given his erratic diplomatic stance.
Tsang said all hell would break loose if President Trump called Lai and announced that the United States would “continue to support Taiwan and provide large-scale arms deliveries.”
But the very fact that President Trump even had the idea of discussing with President Xi Jinping about whether the United States should sell weapons to certain countries was a victory for Beijing, he said.
Any other U.S. president “would say that’s not something we can discuss,” he said.
What is the US commitment to Taiwan?
The United States is Taiwan’s most important backer of arms supplies. Last December, President Trump announced the largest arms package in history, worth more than $11 billion.
However, since his visit to Beijing, President Trump has indicated several times that he may be less supportive of Taiwanese independence.
“I don’t want anyone to be independent. And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not asking for that. I want them to be calm. I want China to be calm,” he told Fox News.
Song said Taipei would not accept suggestions that President Trump might meet with the leader in an attempt to warm relations with Taipei.
“President Trump’s diplomacy can be very improvisational. Think of him not playing some grand strategic, three-dimensional chess, but acting on what he thinks is a winning instinct.”
Tsang said Taiwan would be concerned about President Trump’s unpredictability.
“He’s not anti-Taiwan… but do you trust your future in the hands of Donald Trump? Even if he loves you, he can kill you,” he said.
Will the US-Taiwan arms agreement be concluded?
“Maybe I’ll do it, maybe I won’t,” President Trump told Fox News on Friday.
Since his visit to Beijing, he has also suggested that this is a bargaining chip with China as the United States considers whether to approve a new arms sales package.
The Lai administration insists that the United States’ policy toward Taiwan “will not change.”
“I think we are cautiously optimistic about arms purchases,” said Wellington Koo, Taiwan’s defense minister.
