As the clock ticks down to the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s first forecast has been confirmed.
NOAA’s team of experts predicts a below-average hurricane season, similar to other experts’ predictions in recent weeks. The expected return of El Niño and its potential to become historically strong is a major driver of the outlook.
Overall, NOAA says there is a 55% chance that this will be a below-average hurricane season, and a 35% and 10% chance that it will be a near-average and above-average season, respectively.
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A total of eight to 14 named storms (meaning tropical storms and hurricanes) are expected to form in the basin from June 1 until the season ends on November 30.
NOAA expects three to six of those to become hurricanes, with up to three reaching major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean has 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
The last time NOAA predicted a below-average season was in 2015, when an El Niño event also occurred. Twelve named storms roamed the basin that year.
Last year ended with 13 named storms, five of which were hurricanes. Three of them, Erin, Humberto, and Melissa, exploded to rare Category 5 status.
El Niño is currently a hot topic in the world of weather forecasting, and for good reason. This is because El Niño can have a significant impact on the development of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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Quick review: El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing changes in upper atmospheric patterns. Together, these factors influence weather around the world over long periods of time.
El Niño hasn’t officially occurred yet – we’re in the neutral phase between El Niño and its colder counterpart La Niña – but according to the latest forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to arrive early this summer. Once installed, they are expected to last at least through hurricane season.
El Niño typically suppresses tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean by increasing storm-disturbing winds in the upper atmosphere, known as wind shear, resulting in fewer storms than usual. But with global warming due to fossil fuel pollution, that is no longer guaranteed.
For the 2023 Atlantic season, extremely warm ocean temperatures acted like rocket fuel, allowing storms to develop and thrive despite increased wind shear from El Niño.
This season might be different. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean remain warmer than normal at this point in the year, but far from the levels recorded back-to-back in 2023 and 2024.
These temperatures typically peak around August, so they can continue to warm and affect you for several months.
The start of Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t necessarily mean the rainforest will become active right away. Hurricane season is exactly when most storms occur each year.
The first systems to reach tropical storm status (winds of 39 mph or more) typically occur around June 20th. The first system to reach hurricane status (114 mph winds) will last until about August 11th.
2025 basically stuck to that scenario. Tropical Storm Andrea arrived on June 24, and the first hurricane in the basin was Hurricane Erin on August 15.
Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicate that essentially no tropical activity is expected until the end of May. Forecast signals for early June also look questionable.
However, early season storms are much more likely to occur closer to the United States, such as near the Gulf or Atlantic coasts.
