Voters in six U.S. states headed to the polls Tuesday for a series of primaries that will shape the political landscape ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The races included the California race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, the open Senate and gubernatorial races in Iowa, the closely watched New Jersey race for the House of Representatives, and key statewide races in New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota.
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Midterm elections in the United States have traditionally served as an important litmus test of public support for the president. Observers are watching President Donald Trump more closely than ever this year as his approval ratings plummet over his war with Iran.
Here are key takeaways from the primaries.
California seems primed for a Becerra vs. Hilton showdown.
Millions of votes for gubernatorial candidates have yet to be counted, but California voters appear to be preparing for a November showdown between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.
The winner of November’s midterm elections will replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking a third term.
Becerra, a former health secretary and California attorney general, has emerged as one of a crowded field of Democratic candidates, while Hilton, a former Fox News host who supports President Trump, has built her campaign around public concerns about housing costs, homelessness and affordability.
Kimberly L. Nalder, director of the Informed Voters Project at Sacramento State University, said Mr. Becerra’s strong performance suggests that many voters may be looking for continuity rather than a sharp change in direction following the Newsom era.
He pointed to voters’ decision to reject an effort to remove Newsom in 2021 as evidence that many Californians still feel comfortable with the state’s Democratic leadership.
“If they choose a traditionally qualified candidate like Becerra, it shows Californians are happy to continue governing in a similar manner,” she told Al Jazeera. “Newsom’s recall effort certainly showed that. People’s hearts haven’t changed since Newsom was first elected.”
Nalder added that strategic voting may have played a major role in the primary.
Under California’s top-two system (the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation), some Democrats appear to have supported the candidate they think has the best chance of advancing in November, rather than a candidate who is politically close to them.
“Democrats fear a double outcome for Republicans,” she says. “A lot of people waited until the last moment to see who was the best candidate so they could be the most strategic.”
While state Sen. Scott Wiener has made headway in the race to replace former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco, other House issues are in the spotlight and could help determine whether Democrats can maintain their dominance in California’s congressional delegation, experts said.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass also appears on track to seek a second term after a turbulent four years in office and advance to a runoff in November.
Trump suffered a rare setback in Iowa.
One of the biggest surprises of the night came in Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary, where businessman Zach Rahn defeated U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, despite Feenstra’s support from Trump.
Rahn campaigned as a conservative outsider, supporting a complete ban on abortion, opposing what he called liberal ideology in public schools, and supporting the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.
“Tonight is just the beginning,” Rahn told supporters after declaring victory.
The results are notable in that they show that Trump’s support, while strong, is not necessarily decisive. Rahn will now face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sund, whom Democrats view as one of the strongest statewide candidates in years.
Democrats see open space in Iowa Senate race
Iowa voters are also paying close attention to the Senate race, as state Rep. Josh Turek defeated state Sen. Zach Walls in the Democratic primary and Rep. Ashley Hinson secured the Republican nomination.
Turek, a former Paralympic athlete, cast himself as an outsider fighting for working-class voters.
“The status quo is not working. We need warriors for the people, not for billionaires, corporations and political donors,” he told supporters.
Hinson, backed by Trump and retiring U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, thanked the president in her victory speech and enters the race as the Republican front-runner.
Still, Democrats believe the open seat presents one of their best electoral opportunities this cycle.
New Jersey’s most competitive House race decided
Democrats have selected former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett to challenge Republican Congressman Tom Keene Jr. in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, one of the most competitive House races in the country.
The district is a top target for Democrats in their bid to take back the House of Representatives.
Mr. Bennet has already focused much of his campaign on Mr. Keene’s prolonged absence from Congress, after the Republican incumbent missed more than 100 House votes due to an undisclosed illness.
“You are failing us. You are not qualified to represent us in Washington,” Bennett told supporters after his victory.
The race is expected to be very crowded in November.
New Mexico could make history in gubernatorial race
Former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, 65, has won the Democratic nomination for governor of New Mexico, winning a historic election that could make her the first Native American woman to run for governor.
Haaland, a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe and the first Native American to serve in a presidential cabinet, defeated Albuquerque District Attorney Sam Bregman in Tuesday’s primary.
Her campaign focuses on affordability, government experience, and connections with Indigenous communities.
She will now face Republican Gregory Hull in the November general election.
The election comes as New Mexico benefits from a surge in oil revenue. Rising oil prices related to the war with Iran have boosted revenue for the state, the nation’s second-largest oil producer after Texas. This increase is expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue through taxes, royalties and other payments related to energy production.
Montana and South Dakota
Voters in Montana and South Dakota also finalized their major candidates before the November elections.
In Montana, Democrat Alani Bankhead and Republican Kurt Alme won their respective parties’ nominations for the open U.S. Senate seat, with a general election contest scheduled for later this year.
In South Dakota, Attorney General Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for the state’s only U.S. House seat, moving forward to the general election.
