President Donald Trump has promised to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans maintain narrow control of both houses of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
President Trump headlined a major Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, this week, seeking to energize Republican voters amid slumping polls that indicate a potential surge in support for Democrats across the country.
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But at a time when the national debt is rising due to rising energy prices, inflation, and a continuing war with the deeply unpopular Iran, the move raises questions about whether the world’s largest economy can actually afford to pay 270 million adult Americans what has been dubbed the “Trump dividend,” and whether it is legal to do so.
What did Trump promise?
“I’m the only one who can make this promise because we’ve done so well and our country makes so much money,” Trump told Republicans at his convention on Wednesday.
To loud applause and chants of “USA, USA,” he said that as long as Republicans maintain a majority in both houses of Congress, “every adult citizen of the United States of America will receive a $5,000 dividend.”
“If Republicans win, you win with us,” he declared.
Trump did not elaborate on when or how the payments would be made or how the funds would be disbursed, only that people would have to spend them within the United States. “We don’t want them to go to Canada to spend their money.”
How much does this proposal cost?
With an adult population of up to 270 million people in the United States, dividends could cost $1.3 trillion, before accounting for the administrative costs of implementing and processing the payments.
Vice President J.D. Vance indicated that the money would come from revenue generated by President Trump’s trade tariffs.
He told Fox News: “What the president is talking about is basically a dividend to American workers. We’re making an extraordinary amount of money because the president of the United States is actually standing up not just to foreign companies, but to foreign countries that are exploiting American workers. I don’t think that’s a controversial idea.”
However, the US-based Tax Policy Center predicts that tariffs will raise “approximately $1.7 trillion from fiscal years 2026 to 2036, and $177 billion in 2026.”
Thus, a $5,000 “Trump dividend” per adult American would represent about three-quarters of the total expected income over 11 years.
Since this is just an economic forecast, most of the money has not yet been recovered. Furthermore, it does not take into account the burden of countervailing tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. exports.
So how will the United States pay for this?
Analysts say it will eventually have to be financed with government bonds.
This means that the money President Trump is promising Americans will add to the huge debt the country is borrowing from domestic and foreign investors alike. This additional borrowing increases the total amount of interest the government must pay. That cost must ultimately be repaid by the American people.
Currently, the United States pays about $1.1 trillion a year in debt service, slightly more than it spends on defense.
The U.S. national debt reached $40 trillion in August, a record high. The Congressional Budget Office originally predicted that this level would not be reached for another two years.
Total U.S. debt has increased by $1 trillion every five months since 2020 and has doubled since 2017, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a U.S.-based nonpartisan organization focused on fiscal policy and the national debt. The COVID-19 pandemic and the current war with Iran have accelerated the debt.
According to Ministry of Finance data, public debt borrowed from domestic and foreign investors accounts for 80% of total debt (about $32 trillion).
According to an analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, about $21 trillion of this public debt is owed domestically to various creditors, including the Federal Reserve ($4.528 trillion), which influences federal interest rates and buys and sells Treasury securities to control the money supply.
Other creditors include mutual funds ($5.195 trillion), pension funds ($1.135 trillion), state and local governments ($1.636 trillion), commercial banks and depository institutions ($2.083 trillion), and other corporate and individual lenders ($6.66 trillion).
Is President Trump’s dividend promise legal?
Federal law in the United States prohibits payments intended to influence how people vote.
Criminal defense attorney John W. Day told The Associated Press that while Trump’s campaign promises do appear to be legal, they are “not a reward for individuals trying to get people to vote a certain way.” The difference, he added, is that you don’t first give someone money and then ask them to vote a certain way.
Day also noted the fact that payments will go to everyone, regardless of who voted. The question may be less about legal aspects and more about whether Congress is likely to approve the payments. The one-time payments to Americans must be approved by Congress. “It doesn’t just exist as a slush fund for the president to hand out, so Congress will have a say in whether it’s authorized or not,” Day said.
Has President Trump proposed something like that before?
Trump had previously promised cash payments. After the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk at the start of President Trump’s second term, Americans were told they would receive a portion of the money saved by eliminating bureaucracy, cutting government jobs, and ending government contracts.
When creating DOGE, Musk predicted he would cut government spending by “at least $2 trillion” but did not say when. He later lowered it to $1 trillion.
DOGE claimed to have reduced government costs by $180 billion in June 2025, but this figure is disputed. No payments have reportedly been made to citizens.
Further dividend payments are promised to the nation in November 2025, with President Trump writing on social media that “a dividend of at least $2,000 per person (not including high-income earners!) will be paid to everyone (not including high-income earners!).”
However, there are no reports yet of any such payments being made following this promise.
