David Horner lives for lobster.
Day after day, for half a century, he has taken his boat to the cold waters of the North Atlantic off the coast of Maine, plucked crustaceans from the sea and brought them to land. From there, it’s loaded onto trucks, sent to processing facilities, and shipped to restaurants around the world.
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Horner has voted for U.S. President Donald Trump three times and stands by his vote. He, like the president, supports rolling back environmental regulations that affect commercial fishing.
But while he supports Trump on one policy, he disappoints on another — the president’s hostile approach to Canada, which borders Maine and is heavily involved in that state’s lobster industry.
“I haven’t heard anything about Canadian hostility in the election campaign. I don’t know where that came from,” Horner told Al Jazeera. “As for fighting Canada in this massive hostile trade war, I am completely against it.”
Horner has seen the price of bait rise, along with the cost of the diesel needed to power the boats.
Far beyond Maine’s rugged coastline, tensions involving the United States, Iran, Russia and Ukraine have pushed global diesel prices to record highs in September. Before the U.S. and Israel began their war against Iran, the average price of diesel was $3.08 per gallon (3.8 liters); now it’s more than double that price, to $6.29.
Horner’s business is just a small fish in a very large pond. Maine’s lobster fishery provided $461 million in revenue in 2025, supporting a seafood economy dependent on shellfish.
But the industry was thrown into crisis when President Trump announced significant tariffs on Canadian products, prompting retaliation from Ottawa.
In August, President Trump imposed tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, alleging unfair treatment of American goods. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs, but lifted taxes on seafood later that month.
Maine’s prime lobster season is late summer and early fall, when catches can surge and local processors can struggle to keep up. To process the volume, much of the catch is sent to Canada to be processed into lobster tails, meat, and bisque, and then some is returned to the United States for sale. An estimated 60 percent of Maine’s lobster catch is processed in Canada.
“As soon as the tariffs were lifted, there was a huge cry, literally and figuratively, in Maine and Canada,” Justin Snyder, who works in Maine’s lobster industry and is also a Democratic strategist, told Al Jazeera.
Although seafood was ultimately exempted from the U.S.-Canada trade war, the threat of tariffs raised concerns in the industry and put pressure on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is running a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson in the midterm elections.
political division
The race for a U.S. Senate seat is close. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, has a slight advantage.
A recent CNN poll suggested Mr. Jackson had a 4-point lead, and a Marist poll showed him with a 2-point lead, which is within the margin of error.
Collins has built a reputation in the Senate by supporting Trump’s policies when voting, even as he expresses concerns about his policies and rhetoric. During Collins’ second term, which began in January 2025, he voted in line with Trump on 92% of his Senate votes.
But Collins has broken with Trump several times over tariffs. In April 2025, she voted to lift tariffs on Canadian products. Later that month, she supported President Trump’s resolution to eliminate widespread global tariffs, and in August she pushed back against the White House over tariffs affecting seafood.
In addition to tariffs on Canadian products and other imports, surcharges on foreign steel and aluminum are increasing costs for Maine’s lobster industry, which relies on metals to make traps used by fishermen.
Mr. Jackson has been an outspoken critic of President Trump’s tariffs and has argued that Mr. Collins is not doing enough to challenge the president’s trade policies.
In a recent debate, Collins touted efforts to secure tariff exemptions for products such as road salt. Jackson objected, saying, “You can’t eat road salt.”
President Trump lifted 50% tariffs on some Canadian products, including certain machinery and packaging products, on Oct. 30 ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. At the same time, his administration extended tariffs to other Canadian products, including certain waste products.
“Tariffs on Canada are just the stupidest thing in the world. I don’t think anyone here, Republican or Democratic, can imagine why we’re involved in this,” Maine Republican strategist Lance Dutson told Al Jazeera.
“But I don’t think that’s what people point to Susan Collins. I think she’s made it pretty clear that she’s tried to mitigate those things.”
dangerous trade relationships
Beyond the immediate costs to Maine businesses, the tariffs risk hurting the competitiveness of U.S. exporters in the long term.
Trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. have prompted Ottawa to deepen ties with other countries such as China, a move that could put U.S. exporters at a disadvantage.
“Our competitors, Canada, currently trade with most countries with no tariffs or very low tariffs. If we can’t counter that, there will be fewer markets to sell to and there will be downward pressure on the prices paid to fishermen,” said Snyder, the Democratic strategist.
China, one of the world’s largest lobster markets, imposes a 7% tariff on Canadian lobster, much lower than the 17% tariff imposed on Maine lobster.
“As the United States has become more hostile to some of its trading partners, we have more friendly trade relationships with some of these countries, which gives us a competitive advantage,” Snyder added.
Climate change is also putting pressure on the industry, as lobsters grow and migrate in cold waters.
Maine remains a major lobster producer, but rising ocean temperatures could push lobsters farther north, making Canadian waters richer in the coming years and putting pressure on Maine’s industry.
Jackson argued that Collins has not adequately addressed the root causes of high Mainer prices in the lobster industry and beyond, including tariffs.
“Troy spent most of his life working along the Canadian border, so he knows how important this relationship is to Maine’s economy, and he sees President Trump’s tariffs for what they are: a tax on Maine families and small businesses,” a spokesperson for Jackson said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera.
Collins’ campaign did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
Rising costs on lobster boats make it difficult for Horner to know whether a day at sea will pay off.
He plans to vote for Collins, but support for Trump is becoming increasingly complicated. That’s because fuel costs are high, tariffs affect the prices of goods he regularly uses, and he has conflicting interests with a president who has otherwise been largely seen as an ally.
“I wish I could forget everything else. With him, I’ll be fine,” Horner said. “Expensive diesel fuel is the fishery’s biggest enemy.”
