Soybeans, aircraft and rare earths mean fragile US-China trade truce

Ahead of Thursday’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, soybean purchases, Boeing aircraft orders and access to rare earth elements – three key commitments underpinning the US-China trade truce – are moving at markedly different speeds.

Taken together, the uneven implementation record suggests the ceasefire is doing its bare minimum in maintaining commerce and preventing new escalation, but there is little appetite on either side to cede strategic influence, analysts said.

“Ceasefires are moving fastest where costs are lowest,” Eric Hsiao, head of Asia sales at CMC Markets, told CNBC.

The superpowers’ May meeting reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans and buy 200 Boeing aircraft, while shipments of rare earth magnets from China have resumed after a 12-month suspension of export controls starting last November.

However, the realization of all three promises is uneven and, in some cases, difficult to verify.

Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group, said recent US-China relations have been in a phase of détente, or cooling of tensions, due to a “balance of fragility”.

Hu said in the memo that both sides are “acutely aware of the other’s challenges.”

Wendy Cutler, deputy director of the Asian Social Policy Research Institute, said détente should not be mistaken for rapprochement.

“Right now, both sides are interested in stability,” Cutler told CNBC’s “The China Connection” in May. “This doesn’t mean we’ll be best friends, but it does mean we’ll coexist.”

Soybeans provide the clearest numerical signal of progress across trade commitments.

China bought about 1 million tons from U.S. producers in one week in September, almost half of its annual commitment of 25 million tons, Reuters reported.

Soybean purchases are also an important tool to demonstrate cooperation between the two countries.

“Things pick up a little bit before the bilateral meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, but then they slow down again,” China strategist Andy Rothman told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” in July, noting that purchases tend to be concentrated around important meetings.

Mr. Xiao described the soybean purchases as a “political trophy” but cautioned against interpreting the soybean implementation as a direct indication of Beijing’s stance on broader trade relations. “China is buying because it needs it,” he said.

Soybean trade tensions are not a recent phenomenon.

In China, the world’s largest soybean importer, U.S. soybean imports plummeted from 40% of total imports in the first five months of 2026 to 23% before President Trump imposed tariffs on key Chinese products in 2018.

Progress on the promise to bring in 200 aircraft has been less transparent.

According to Reuters, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week that about 140 of the planes were in “good condition” and orders for 10 more had been written. Customers, models, and delivery dates were not disclosed.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg also downplayed expectations for a single announcement of 200 planes, saying each Chinese airline will place and announce orders at its own pace.

The pledge came with an additional caveat, with Beijing’s official explanation of the May agreement linking the purchases to U.S. guarantees for the supply of aircraft engines and parts.

Measuring Beijing’s fulfillment of its rare earth commitments is more difficult. This is because the commitment is about guaranteed access, not specific export quantities.

Shipments of rare earth magnets from China to the United States, which recovered after previous restrictions, fell to 512 tonnes in August, down 20% from July and 13% year-on-year, according to Chinese customs data reported by the Financial Times.

Uncertainty regarding access to rare earths continues for U.S. customers as well.

Some Chinese suppliers are refusing orders from the United States, citing geopolitical and compliance concerns, and some American companies are waiting more than six months for export permits, Reuters reported.

Experts said the strategic importance of rare earths could be the clearest signal of each country’s position on trade relations, as concessions on materials come at a strategic cost.

Macquarie’s Hu identified rare earths as a key challenge for China, given the US’s influence in advanced semiconductors used to make chips.

Shao similarly said that rare earths are the clearest indicator of a broader relationship because of their importance in clean energy, advanced technology, and defense.

Shao said that progress on rare earths efforts could “build lasting relationships in a way that orders for soybeans or aircraft cannot.”

He noted that exercising that leverage is a delicate calculation. A complete cut off of exports would hurt Chinese producers who rely on global electric vehicle and technology markets, while the United States and its allies would encourage alternative supply chains to accelerate.

Xiao said that for China, “the strongest card is, in other words, the card that cannot be completely played.”

– CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng and Anniek Bao contributed to this article.