An American flag flies behind a Wall Street sign near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 22, 2026 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Asian stocks rose while oil prices fell on Monday after the United States and Iran agreed to a peace deal aimed at ending nearly four months of conflict, prompting investors to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium that has dominated markets since February.
The strongest reaction was seen in the energy market. US crude oil futures Prices for July delivery fell 4.77% to $80.83 per barrel by 8:27 p.m. ET. brent futuresThe international benchmark for August delivery was trading about 4% lower at $83.77 a barrel.
Asian stocks soared. South Korea’s Kospi rose 5.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.6% and the broader TOPIX rose 2.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.3%.
“Markets have been waiting for this news for months, but we are already seeing relief in lower oil prices and lower risk assets after President Trump confirmed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade,” said Josh Gilbert, principal analyst for APAC at eToro.
The drop in oil prices and the prospect of peace affected other asset classes as well. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.483, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.423%, suggesting investors are receding inflation concerns over easing energy prices.
“The most immediate impact will be the re-pricing of the inflation risk premium that the market has been saddled with since the closure of the Channel,” said Billy Leon, investment strategist at Global XETF.
“Oil is moving the sharpest, but the more pronounced signal is actually in bonds. Falling yields in tandem with rising stock prices confirms that markets were already treating the energy shock as temporary rather than structural.”
Investors continue to flock to safe havens
In addition to safe-haven US Treasuries, gold also rose. “The interesting outlier here is gold,” Leon said. “In a clean risk-on trade, gold should sell off as the geopolitical premium eases, but it has held bids close to $4,300, indicating that the market still does not have full confidence in this trade.”
Spot gold prices rose nearly 2% to $4,302.19 an ounce.
The skepticism reflects persistent uncertainty surrounding the deal, which remains unsigned and at risk of implementation.
Gilbert warned: “The deal won’t actually be signed until June 19, but details are still thin. This standoff has shown time and time again that the headlines can be wild.”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts also stressed that the oil outlook depends on how quickly transport and production can normalize.
Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability research at CBA, expects Brent prices to fall to around $80 a barrel by the end of the year, assuming the Strait remains open and exports recover. However, he warned that damage to refining infrastructure, the presence of sea mines and uncertainty in tanker traffic could delay a return to normal operations.
Still, he said markets were likely to take comfort in the prospect that a return to around 60-70% of pre-war levels in oil flows would be enough to restore hopes of a global oversupply.
The biggest impact for investors will be what cheaper energy means for inflation and central banks. The fall in oil prices will ease pressure on households and businesses and reduce the risk of a rekindling of broader inflation, as major central banks enter a busy week of policy meetings.
“A broader reading is constructive for global investors,” Gilbert said. “Sustained declines in oil prices will alleviate some of the burden on central banks.”
