The travel season is shrinking, and so are the savings.

Traveling during shoulder season is often touted as a reliable way to save money compared to budget-busting summer travel.

But travel companies and experts say those savings are dwindling and, in some cases, disappearing completely, making deals harder to find.

Shoulder season falls between a destination’s peak tourism season and off-season.

For example, in many places, the fall season lasts from approximately early September to mid-November. This means that after the summer and before the winter holidays are generally the busiest and most expensive times to travel.

Historically, shoulder seasons have meant less demand and lower ticket and hotel prices, especially in popular holiday destinations overseas, which also generally benefit from still-warm weather, experts say.

However, seasonal savings are becoming less reliable, as overall travel costs have skyrocketed in the wake of the Iran war.

“In many ways, I think this is the irony of the shoulder season: it’s a good time to travel, so it’s become more attractive,” said Sofia Markovic, travel advisor and founder of Sofia’s Travel. “And everyone is starting to realize that, so it’s starting to become less of a bargain.”

Shoulder season discounts for domestic travel in the U.S. have all but disappeared in recent years, data shows.

Travelers can expect to pay, on average, 20% less for round-trip domestic flights during the fall shoulder season in 2023 than for summer travel, which runs from Memorial Day to Labor Day, according to data from travel app Hopper.

But that savings margin has steadily declined and even reversed this year. Prices this fall will be slightly higher than summer fares, Hopper noted.

Expedia data also suggests summer demand is “spilling over into the fall” and travelers need to be “more strategic” in finding deals, the online travel agency said in its fall travel outlook.

According to Expedia, room rates in the top 10 U.S. cities are 20% higher in the fall than in the summer, and airfares are also up 2%.

According to Expedia, the most popular regions based on number of lodging searches are New York, Las Vegas, Orlando, Florida, Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Nashville, Tennessee, New Orleans, and Honolulu.

We compared prices for the period from May 25th to September 7th and from September 7th to November 26th.

“The idea that (fall) is a time of low prices and low demand is becoming less and less true,” said Haley Berg, chief economist at Hopper Technology Solutions, the company’s business-to-business arm. “Shoulder season discounts are shrinking.”

Data shows that international travel pricing varies.

For example, Hopper found that in 2026, the average round-trip ticket price from the U.S. to Mexico and Central America will be similar in fall and summer. Four years ago, fall flights were 11% cheaper than summer flights.

Elsewhere, Berg said, U.S. travelers can typically save on international airfare during normal periods.

“But I’m not saving as much as I used to,” she says.

The hopper data shows the following example.

Europe: In 2023, flights from the United States to Europe were on average 33% cheaper during the fall shoulder season than in the summer. In 2026, the savings rate dropped to 22%. Asia: Travelers to Asia can save an average of 21% in 2026 by flying during the fall shoulder season instead of summer. This is down from 29% savings in 2023. Middle East and Africa: Flights to the Middle East and Africa will be 16% cheaper in fall 2026 than in summer. That’s down from 26% in 2023. Oceania: Airline savings for travelers to Australia, New Zealand and other Pacific Islands fell from 18% to 7% over the same period.

Flights from the U.S. to the top 10 international destinations are on average 3.2% more expensive this fall compared to the summer, according to Expedia data shared with CNBC.

According to Expedia, the 10 most popular international destinations this fall, based on lodging searches, are Tokyo, Cancun, Mexico, Paris, Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, Rome, London, Aruba, Playa del Carmen, Mexico, Barcelona, ​​Spain, and Cabo San Lucas (Mexico).

Accommodation prices in these regions were found to be slightly higher, 0.7% higher than in summer.

“In many destinations where I work, especially on the Mediterranean coast, September is no longer automatically the ‘best season,'” Markovic said. “Popular destinations in Spain, Italy, Greece, Croatia and France are likely to be as crowded as ever.”

Travel experts say there are several underlying factors behind this trend.

For one, the rise in remote work during and after the COVID-19 pandemic has given many people more flexibility in their travel schedules and reduced periods of low demand.

Experts say improvements in technology and travel search engines will give travelers more transparency into price deals for different destinations at specific times. In other words, when low fares and prices attract attention, demand increases, and prices generally follow.

Additionally, low-cost carriers have struggled since the pandemic due to factors such as increased operating costs, which has reduced the availability of lower fares, Berg said. Low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines suspended operations in May.

Experts say climate change is pushing summer temperatures to record levels in many tourist destinations, prompting some travelers to avoid the summer months altogether. For example, this year in Western Europe, June and July were the hottest on record, with wildfires raging in Greece, France and Spain.

“Maybe people don’t view peak season months as desirable as they used to,” said Alan Ryan, director of industry research at Tourism Economics.

Experts said overcrowding in certain destinations could also be a factor.

“For a lot of people, going to Rome in the summer is very stressful,” Brett Snyder, founder of the blog Cranky Flyer and travel agency Cranky Concierge, told CNBC last month.

Not only can it be “very hot”, but it can also be “crowded”, which is especially true for Mediterranean destinations, he said. As a result, more people want to travel in the summer heading into the fall, driving up demand and prices, he said.

“The more people travel in the summer, the more people will try to fly during off-peak hours because it’s a better experience for them,” Snyder said.

Experts say this trend comes as overall travel costs have increased significantly in the post-pandemic period, most recently due to the war with Iran.

According to data from Kayak, round-trip domestic ticket fares averaged $366 for the week of August 17, an increase of 34% from a year ago. The average international fare was $893, an increase of 25% over the same period.

Hopper’s Berg said the main reason for this was the rising price of jet fuel, a major input cost for airlines. Jet fuel is refined from crude oil, but the Iran war has severely disrupted supply.

Even with rising travel prices and reduced seasonal discounts, the shoulder season has not completely disappeared, Markovic said.

“I think it’s being pushed and compressed,” she said. While September is becoming a “new high demand period,” “the real value has shifted to the second half, October and November.”

Customers who prioritize travel in September or early October rather than postponing until fall or later are encouraged to book early.

But for many of Markovich’s clients, traveling during shoulder season is less about saving money and more about having a better experience, she said.

“They want good weather without the summer heat, fewer crowds, better access to restaurants and experiences, and a more relaxed pace,” Markovic said. “And a lot of people are willing to pay a little bit more for that.”