Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on August 24, 2026 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
of 10 year treasury Yields rose on Monday as investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East and the gathering of G20 financial leaders.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose more than 3 basis points to 4.756%, its highest level since January 15, 2025. 30 year treasury It rose more than 4 basis points to 5.254%, but 2 years treasury The yield fell less than 1 basis point to 4.346%.
1 basis point equals 0.01%. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
The Iran war came into focus after the US launched strikes against Iranian targets overnight for the first time in weeks. The Iranian government announced that it had attacked a US military base in Jordan in retaliation.
brent crude oil futures Prices were last trading above $90 a barrel, up 2% on Monday as hostilities escalated. US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures also rose, adding 2% to trade above $85 per barrel.
Investors are also keeping an eye on the upcoming meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Asheville, North Carolina. We will also be watching a series of economic data releases for further clues about the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS data due Tuesday and non-farm payrolls due Friday.
On Friday, the two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to policy expectations, rose more than 12 basis points to settle at around 4.354% after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made hawkish remarks in Jackson Hole.
Markets are currently pricing in an increased likelihood of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in September. Federal funds futures traders currently see a roughly 66% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Barclays strategists said in a note Monday morning that economists now expect two 25 basis point rate hikes this year, in September and December.
“Kevin Warsh has signaled that he is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not move towards target, highlighting that he is ‘concerned’ by inflation trends over the past year,” they said.
But Mark Hefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note on Monday that his team’s baseline scenario remains that “steady progress in underlying inflation would allow the Fed to keep interest rates on hold this year.”
“While the risks of a September rate hike have increased, the latest set of inflation data remains consistent with continued disinflation,” he said. “For investors, this confirms the need to lock in yields.”
