A ship anchors and an Iranian flag waving in the wind in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran, on May 16, 2026.
Majid Saidi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Analysts say the escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran over the weekend shows the United States is running out of patience with its slow-moving approach to sanctions.
US forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers on Rarak Island on Sunday, ending a month-long stalemate in direct hostilities, as the Islamic Republic prepares to fire mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz.
The attack was the first publicly acknowledged attack by the United States since late July. Iran counterattacked within hours, firing eight missiles at King Hussein Air Base and Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan. According to the Jordanian government, Jordanian air defense forces intercepted all eight aircraft and there were no casualties.
Late Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened on social media to blow up Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, “to smithereens.”
“From the beginning, much of the war was focused tactically rather than strategically,” said Ian Larbee, a maritime security expert and president of Aucsilium Worldwide. “So the question is, why this and why now?”
Larbi said the sanctions campaign may not be hitting Iran’s leadership as quickly as the United States hoped. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Sunday that he expected new sanctions on Iran each week, particularly targeting banks, and that the U.S. government intended to completely remove Iranian-linked financial institutions from the dollar system.
“Financial pressure may not have restrained Iran’s behavior as much as the United States expected,” Larby said. A resumption of Iranian military activity could have threatened U.S. forces and interests in the region “at a sufficiently significant level that the United States felt the need to attack Iranian territory again.”
Larbee added that the U.S. strike was likely an attempt to break the deadlock rather than a change in policy. “The status quo is somewhat stagnant, and I’m sure the United States wants that to change,” he said. However, it is unlikely to change “the continuation of the blockade and the economic ‘war’ being used to put pressure on Iran.”
Potential for escalation
President Trump’s threats against Kharg Island are likely to remain mere rhetoric. The terminal had absorbed dozens of strikes since the war began, and its oil infrastructure had been deliberately spared.
“It is unlikely that the U.S. president will actually carry out his threat to attack Kharg Island,” Larby said, noting that Kharg Island is also home to a historic early church that Iran has strived to preserve.
He said the attack was “likely to cause catastrophic environmental damage, not only destroying cultural heritage sites, but also critical oil infrastructure.” “Threat may seem appealing, but actually blowing it up should have little appeal.”
Rather than confronting U.S. forces head-on, Iran is more likely to retaliate through proxies and put pressure on shipping and energy flows.
“The key to this conflict has been asymmetrical from the beginning,” Larbee said. “The Iranians have demonstrated the ability to use limited effective force to cause substantial harm.”
For example, the Houthis, who have controlled much of Yemen and access to Bab el-Mandeb for the better part of a decade, entered the war several weeks ago in support of Iran.
With the Houthis restricting navigation on the Bab el-Mandeb River, the United States and its regional allies could face a situation in which two major maritime chokepoints used for the export of much of the Gulf’s oil products are “exposed to manipulation by Iran and its partners,” said Michael Latney, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“We always think that the Houthis and Iran are part of a homogeneous group, but that’s not actually the case,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. “They have worked completely independently up until now.”
As coalition naval forces concentrate on the Red Sea and Hormuz, Somali piracy, which has been dormant since 2013, is making a comeback. At least five ships have now been seized, including a tanker that was seized off the coast of Al Mukalla on August 20.
“Increased pressure on oil production, energy markets and global shipping are likely to be the focus of Iran’s retaliation,” Larbi said.
Military operations remain the dominant influence on oil prices. Last week, Galimberti estimated that the flow of water through the strait reached about 7 million barrels a day via the Oman corridor under U.S. naval escort, calling it “a very expensive system… but it’s working.”
The attack on Raraku threatens to reverse that recovery, creating new uncertainty for commercial shipping through the waterway. “Volumes in circulation are probably expected to be lower in the coming days, so we should definitely expect price increases,” Galimberti said.
