Consumer sentiment fell in September to its lowest level since 2014 as inflation-weary citizens took a gloomy view of the labor market and the impact of rising prices on household finances, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday.
The commission’s consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 89.
Respondents cited concerns about inflation and the employment outlook. For the first time in the four-year history of this survey question, more respondents said their personal finances were in poor rather than good condition.
“Consumers’ ratings of the current economic situation are negative for the first time since September 2024,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
“Consumer written responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September,” he added. “References to prices, high costs of goods and services, especially oil and gas prices, rose to new heights, reflecting the rise in fuel prices in September.”
Other measures showed similar deterioration, with the board’s current status index down 7.9 points to 109.3 and the six-month outlook index, the expectations index, down 5.9 points to 63.6.
In terms of labor, the gap between the answer that “jobs are plentiful” and the answer that “jobs are difficult to obtain,” which is attracting attention as a barometer of the health of the labor market, has further narrowed, dropping by 2.5 points to just 1.7%.
These results come against a rise in inflation expectations driven by continued uncertainty over the Iran war, which is reflected in financial markets as sharp increases in U.S. Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
On average, respondents expect inflation to be 6.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from August. The median forecast also rose by 0.3 points to 5.1%.
The Conference Board’s opinion is consistent with similar research. According to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, sentiment fell 7% in September, the second lowest on record.
In other economic news on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings in August fell slightly to 7.08 million, with sharp declines in professional, business services and health care jobs. Wall Street consensus was 7.2 million jobs.
The number of hires increased slightly during the month, but the number of resignations remained largely unchanged and the number of layoffs decreased slightly.
