Brazilian right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro waves with his wife Fernanda as he announces his candidacy at the Liberal Party Congress in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on July 25, 2026.
Nelson Almeida | AFP | Getty Images
Brazilians will have three weeks to decide whether to re-elect incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or oust him in favor of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flavio Bolsonaro, who won the most votes in the first round on Sunday and advanced to the run-off.
But the results of the first round are recalibrating how investors estimate the final decision.
Speculators on prediction market platform Carsi currently believe there is a more than 80% chance that Bolsonaro will win the presidency. Until the results of Sunday’s first round, he had about a 60% chance of winning. Polymarket currently gives Bolsonaro odds of 85%, up sharply from 63% before the first round of tallies.
Mr. Bolsonaro was seen as the narrow favorite to win the presidential race before Sunday’s first round of voting, according to opinion polls before Sunday’s first round, and was widely expected to follow incumbent Mr. Lula in initial tallies. This was the case even though Bolsonaro was favored to win the run-off. However, Bolsonaro received more than 47% of the vote, nearly two points higher than Lula’s first-round vote total.
If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the two candidates with the most votes will proceed to the run-off.
Brazil’s assets increased as a result of this result.
of iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) It rose more than 12% on Monday. US listed stocks Itau Unibanco 15% increase; bradesco bank It soared 19%. Locals in Brazil bovespa The index rose 8%.
This is the 1-day chart of iShares MSCI Brazil ETF.
Investors widely viewed Bolsonaro as more favorable for markets because of his promise of greater fiscal discipline. Brazil’s fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP in June was nearly 10%.
Lula is running for a fourth term as president. After a 12-year term, he regained the presidency in 2022 by defeating then-incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s camp is trying to link Flavio Bolsonaro to his father’s efforts to contest his 2022 defeat and brand his son corrupt.
The run-off election in Brazil will be held on October 25th.
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