The US government’s lack of transparency and Tehran’s warmongering have left people across the Middle East anxious and confused, searching for a signal whether conflict between Iran and the US will reignite.
“The atmosphere has definitely changed,” a 36-year-old American living in Saudi Arabia told CNN. He is scheduled to leave office before Tuesday’s midterm elections, after which US President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of new battles.
“People are generally being more cautious and it feels like a wait-and-see game to see what happens,” she added.
Questions swirl in the homes and workplaces of Gulf Arab states. Residents are looking for clues to help them plan in case of school closures or travel disruptions.
The war began in February when the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The two countries remain locked in a stubborn stalemate, entering its eighth month this week with no diplomatic progress or an end to the military impasse.
President Trump has given little clarity about his endgame, wavering between threats of further attacks and the possibility of diplomacy. Iran is now trying to project its deterrent capabilities, claiming it has weapons capable of hitting more targets and causing more damage than before. Mediation continues, but a breakthrough will depend on whether at least one of the two sides breaks through the red line that they should not cross.
“The United States will not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections,” President Trump wrote on social media earlier this month. Part of the reason for the continued tension is that the US president has since neither denied nor confirmed the possibility of a renewed strike.
“The United States continues to signal that further escalation may be imminent and is actively stoking fears across the region,” Hasan al-Hasan, a senior fellow on Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN. “But it’s becoming harder to distinguish between pressure tactics and genuine signals.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who collaborated with the United States in attacking Iran and is pushing for new attacks, remains in office despite losing his majority in recent elections, adding to the sense that escalation may be imminent. Negotiations to form Israel’s new government are expected to begin in earnest next week, but the election results suggest it will be difficult for the opposition to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly, if at all.
Due to the lack of clarity, residents in the region often rely on hearsay or search social media for reports of troop movements to determine whether a U.S. attack is imminent.
Over the past month, Iranian military commanders have also stepped up a series of public messages alleging that Iran is building a large stockpile of new weapons, a tactic aimed at instilling fear among U.S. allies in the region.
A senior security official in Tehran told CNN that Iran is seeking to target infrastructure in the region, including AI, in addition to oil facilities, warning that a renewed conflict would lead to a protracted “surprise war.” On Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered that any new threat be responded to “without geographic restrictions”, an apparent attempt by the leader, who has not yet appeared in public, to appear to be taking an active role in military preparations.
Drawn to wealthy Gulf Arab states by economic opportunities and tax-free lifestyles, foreign workers have lived relatively stable lives in the conflict-riddled region for decades. That sense of security was shattered this year when the United States and Israel went to war, with Tehran unleashing an unprecedented barrage of ballistic missiles and drones on Arab cities, disrupting schools, travel and business and causing multiple casualties.
But despite the war, many residents told CNN they remain in place and feel confident under the protection of well-armed regional forces. However, practical concerns remain.
Michelle, 36, an American living in Abu Dhabi, told CNN: “I really don’t want another winter of strikes, so I try not to think about something like that happening again.” “I’ve always felt safe here… but I’m more worried that our lives will have to change again.”
People were surprised to learn this month that families of American diplomats were starting to cautiously leave the country, but their sudden departures were only made known when their children began saying goodbye to their classmates at school. Many of the defectors had only recently returned to their posts after being ordered to leave at the height of the Iran war in March, giving the departure a frustrating and chaotic sense of déjà vu.
As reported by the Associated Press, reports that thousands of U.S. troops are being deployed to the area have fueled concerns among residents.
In Saudi Arabia, where major events have already been canceled, offices closed and staff working remotely after escalating attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, residents told CNN they fear a return to war could increase pressure on a country already embroiled in conflict along its southern border.
“My neighbors and friends are refueling for November, but they’re starting to worry about flight disruptions during the holidays,” said a 36-year-old American living in Saudi Arabia, comparing it to the coronavirus era. “Many offices have moved to virtual offices or reduced staff and implemented remote learning.”
Elsewhere in the region, other international rallies are progressing well, but there remains a risk that they will be disrupted if the United States launches an attack next week.
In Abu Dhabi, where no attacks have been recorded since May, two US oil companies canceled plans for executives to attend one of the region’s biggest oil conferences, citing security concerns, Reuters reported. Organizer DMG told Reuters that the event will go ahead as planned next week due to “strong” U.S. participation and more than 120 U.S. companies exhibiting.
Organizers say about 240,000 people are expected to attend the conference.
In Bahrain, one of the countries hardest hit by Iran this year, people said they were still feeling the psychological effects of the war.
“The traumatic effects of that still remain,” Fawaz, 21, told CNN. “When I hear the bombing, it’s like I feel it in my heart, and I can’t sleep at night, especially when there’s a bombing outside.”
“Many people have gotten used to it by now, but it’s still very scary,” he added.
There has been quiet diplomacy over the past week, despite growing fears of a possible return to war.
According to Iranian media, US Vice President J.D. Vance sent a letter to Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei, and the Islamic Republic is reviewing the letter. President Trump has insisted that the letter was related to Iran’s request for medical supplies, but hopes are high that a diplomatic breakthrough is still possible.
Iranian officials are in Qatar for talks, a Qatari official said. Qatar has played a key role in mediation, but the official added that no U.S. delegation was present on Saturday.
In stark contrast to President Trump’s warnings, Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that he believes “drastic steps” could be taken within the next two weeks.
“It’s almost there. I think we’re very close to the point where we can finally say, ‘Let’s take a break,'” he said, adding that it’s “a matter of trust and who makes the move first.”
On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio would not say whether any progress had been made in the past 48 hours of talks, but insisted that “if there is a diplomatic solution, we will accept it.”
Asked on CNN if there is a deadline for talks to progress before the Trump administration resumes military action, Rubio said, “I don’t know if there’s a deadline,” adding, “It’s up to the president to make decisions on things like that.”
“There are multiple discussions going on. In fact, the talks have never stopped. There are active discussions going on, sometimes directly and often through intermediaries,” he said at a news conference in Atlanta.
“The president’s preference is to try to resolve any challenges around the world diplomatically and peacefully when possible,” Rubio said. “He recognizes that unfortunately, sadly, there are some problems in the world that cannot be solved peacefully, but we would like to solve them that way.”
Rubio said any diplomatic solution “must not jeopardize our national security or fail to meet our core concerns,” particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Iranian officials say they are open to diplomacy with the United States, but do not trust talks will halt military attacks, citing past instances in which the Islamic Republic has been attacked during negotiations.
A key figure also warned that Iran was not prepared to compromise.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament who is leading negotiations with the US, said: “Iran’s terms have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediator.” “A carrot-and-stick approach will not affect Iran. Progress can only be achieved if Iran’s seven conditions are agreed.”
