Qingdao, China – January 13, 2026 – A cargo ship is loading and unloading foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China on January 13, 2026.
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China’s export growth in December was much stronger than expected, with the country’s annual trade surplus at a record high even as imports rose at the fastest pace in three months.
Exports rose 6.6% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs statistics on Wednesday, beating the median analyst estimate of a 3% increase and accelerating from a 5.9% increase in November.
Imports rose 5.7% year-on-year in December, beating expectations for a 0.9% increase and the highest level since September last year, when imports rose 7.4%, according to LSEG data.
China’s full-year exports increased by 5.5% compared to 2024, but imports remained flat, leaving China with a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion.
Trade tensions with the United States led to double-digit declines in shipments from China to the country for much of last year.
As China’s exporters expand shipments to markets outside the United States, the growing trade imbalance has raised concerns from major trading partners, including the European Union.
At a press conference in December, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the Chinese government to move away from dependence on exports for growth and accelerate domestic consumption expansion.
Chinese officials had promised to increase imports and try to balance trade.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said he expects the Chinese government to maintain its macro policy stance at least in the first quarter as strong export growth eases soft domestic demand and trade tensions with the United States ease.
In October, China and the United States agreed to a one-year trade cease-fire, reversing a series of export controls and tariff hikes, following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Although overall exports recorded solid growth in 2025, trade tensions with the United States led to double-digit declines in shipments from China to the country for much of last year.
China is scheduled to release annual and fourth-quarter gross domestic product data next Monday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the world’s second-largest economy to grow 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The Chinese government had set a growth target of around 5% for 2025.
The nearly $19 trillion economy is struggling to shake off deflationary pressures as the deepening real estate collapse weighs on household demand and a weak job market clouds consumer confidence. The country’s consumer prices will remain flat in 2025, falling short of the official target of about 2% growth.
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