In eastern Syria, a man complaining about rising fuel prices addresses the country’s interim president to a crowd who are recording him on a mobile phone.
“We have stood with you, so stand with us,” he cries. “I swear to God, if things don’t change between now and the new year, things will not be what we want them to be. Enough is enough!”
Security officials stand by as he publicly denounces the government.
What happens next is amazing. Nothing happens.
Thousands of Syrians poured into the streets earlier this month in the largest protests since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime nearly two years ago. Under the 54-year police state his family ruled, public disobedience could have meant imprisonment, torture, disappearance or death, but they were allowed to return home.
The protests were widely broadcast on state media, a contrast to the Assad regime, when state television spread disinformation aimed at discrediting the protests, including claims that the protests were carried out from a studio far away in Qatar.
Syria is currently navigating the gap between newly won political freedoms and economic recovery, but much of the public is losing patience and is frustratingly far off.
The recent demonstrations were triggered by the government’s sudden decision to increase fuel prices by up to 40% due to the global energy crisis caused by the Iran war. As anger grew, the government reversed some of the tax increases and sent the energy minister to parliament to demonstrate accountability.
Analysts have praised the government’s response to its biggest ever economic stress test, but warned that the fundamentals of the country’s cost of living crisis remain unchanged. The World Bank estimates that two-thirds of Syrians live below the middle-income poverty line, or less than $3.65 a day.
Ibrahim al-Asir, director of the Syria Transition Lab at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, told CNN: “We’re going to see more of these protests. Overcoming the severe economic challenges that Syrians are suffering from is virtually impossible. It’s going to become increasingly difficult.”
This economic burden is increasing the gap between the Syrian people’s expectations for the new government and reality.
“The honeymoon period will come to an end. People’s expectations will rise and if those expectations are not met, patience will wane. That’s basically where we are,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.
Interim President Ahmed al-Sharah is rushing to rebuild Syria, an estimated $216 billion mission, before his patience runs out. He inherited a near-bankrupt state plundered by Assad and his cronies, leaving the new government to rely primarily on foreign investment.
His strategy is to bring the country back on the world stage after decades of isolation, and he is now trying to turn that international momentum into tangible economic benefits.
“Syria has regained its place in the international community. Syria was a transit point for the world. We also built diplomatic bridges and proved to the world that regional security must start from Damascus,” al-Sharah told the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday.
Al-Shallah’s global support is perhaps best exemplified by his warm relationship with US President Donald Trump, with whom he has met four times since May last year. As a result, all U.S. sanctions against Syria were completely lifted, key to opening up foreign investment.
So far, most of the foreign investment has been driven by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with an estimated $28 billion in Syria last year. The European Union has pledged $2.7 billion in aid, and French President Emmanuel Macron signed several new economic, transport and infrastructure deals during a visit to Damascus in July.
According to one Syria expert’s calculations, the new administration has met with representatives of about 100 countries since it took office. In a show of pragmatism, al-Sharaa even maintains relations with both of the former regime’s biggest allies, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The breadth of its involvement reflects Syria’s strategic position. At a time of international dissonance, support for Syria’s future has become a rare point of agreement, largely due to geography. Syria is located in the heart of the Middle East, connecting Asia and Europe through ports in the Mediterranean Sea.
This reflects the belief that a stable and prosperous Syria can strengthen regional stability, facilitate refugee returns, and curb extremism, just as the Syrian civil war reverberated across borders, sparked a migration crisis, and enabled the rise of ISIS.
Amid the Iran war, al-Sharah is leveraging Syria’s strategic location to promote itself as a modern-day Silk Road, a trading hub that serves as an alternative land bridge to the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.
A proof of concept is already underway in which thousands of tanker trucks loaded with oil from southern Iraq will be routed through Syria to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas.
But for ordinary Syrians, the government’s ambitious plans have yet to show concrete results.
Lister said the international community sees a real opportunity to rebuild Syria’s future, but that it will take time.
“The reality is that most of these projects are 10-year strategic projects. They are not going to reduce the price of bread in Syria, or immediately bring in more fuel, or reduce fuel costs,” he said.
Lister said the end of U.S. sanctions will lead to a flurry of new small and medium-sized investment projects that will help people get to work faster.
“It is these types of projects that have a much greater chance of starting to sow the seeds that will lead to amelioration of the challenges faced by ordinary Syrians,” he said. “But it’s not going to result in these problems being fixed next week. It’s probably going to take another year or two.”
Karam Shaar, a Syrian political economist who runs an advisory firm, estimates that only 5% of promised deals have made tangible progress. Most notable are the power infrastructure and Damascus airport renovations by UCC Holding, led by the influential Syrian-Qatari al-Qayat brothers.
“There’s no doubt that the economy is recovering, but that doesn’t matter to ordinary people. What matters to them is whether their lives are improving,” he told CNN.
Bassam al-Ali, a Syrian protester, complained to Reuters that the government was focused on big deals rather than improving the cost of living.
“We don’t want roundabouts. Every day they build new roundabouts and shopping malls that cost a million dollars and we don’t know what they are. Please let our people live,” he told Al-Sharah. “Your people are with you, are with you now and will be with you, but this is going to blow things up.”
Al Ashir warned that as economic dissatisfaction grows, the “revolutionary legitimacy” that al-Shara’s government has built could erode.
“To buy people’s patience, you have to allow them to participate and make them feel like their voices are being heard.”
But even if governments are able to bridge the gap between international investment and day-to-day economic improvements, they face other obstacles largely beyond their control. That’s what al-Shara addressed directly at the United Nations on Wednesday.
“The world is happy to have us back. But Israel has launched an attack on Syria,” he said. “This is inconsistent with the direction we are seeing at a global level.”
He estimated that Israel has carried out nearly 500 attacks in Syria since taking power. Israel also occupies much of southern Syria, and Israeli officials have said they plan to keep troops there indefinitely.
Israel does not trust al-Shara and says it needs security to prevent terrorist attacks on its soil. Syria, tired of war, says it does not want conflict with its neighbor.
The two sides have been in direct talks since August last year.
Al-Shallah told an Atlantic Council panel in New York on Tuesday that negotiations had “reached a 90% agreement” until Israel pulled out for “other reasons.”
Lister said instability posed by Israel’s actions is the biggest concern among investors asking about opportunities in Syria.
“If Israel continues its current stance after the (October) elections, it will be unlikely that there will be more and more foreign investment in Syria, because they are wielding a huge hammer over Damascus’s head,” he said.
“This particular issue is at the heart of economic recovery, as well as sanctions, investment prospects, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Israel is equally important.”
