Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in a bid to restore its influence over the vital waterway.
More than a dozen shipping strikes have occurred since late September, reducing the amount of oil passing through the strait and keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel.
US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he has no plans to attack Iran before the midterm elections. Rising energy costs could contribute to Republicans losing the House, Senate, or both in the midterm elections.
“We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections in the United States on November 3,” Trump declared on Truth Social, saying his administration was “having productive discussions” with Tehran, adding that his primary goal was to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
However, the Iranian government views Hormuz as a “strategic red line” and is expanding its range of targets in the Gulf.
For Tehran, which is enduring US pressure despite its struggling economy, influence over Hormuz is non-negotiable. But the U.S. government says the principle of free navigation on the high seas cannot be violated, a position echoed by Gulf states that rely on the strait for much of their trade.
In one of the latest incidents, the United Arab Emirates National Guard announced on Saturday that it had rescued 22 people after an oil tanker fire. Those rescued were Indian nationals, and India is one of the largest suppliers of seafarers.
The UK Maritime Trade Office (UKMTO), which tracks shipping accidents, has reported several other attacks in recent days.
The captain reported that a tanker sailing in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Saturday, causing a fire on board, the paper said. UKMTO reported another attack in the same area on Sunday in which a vessel was damaged. All crew members were reported safe.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) navy claimed on Saturday that a supertanker carrying crude oil hit a mine as it attempted to exit the Strait of Hormuz via a route not approved by the Iranian government, causing a massive explosion.
“External powers have no right to intimidate, maintain an overbearing presence, or interfere. The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s strategic red line,” Revolutionary Guards Chief Ahmed Vahidi said in a post on X.
UKMTO said on Sunday that it had also received reports from several vessels in UAE waters that they had been instructed to leave their berths via VHF radio messages. Iran has recently avoided targeting the UAE.
Ambry, the shipping analyst, said the Revolutionary Guards Navy had issued a warning to six ships anchored about 16 miles (25 kilometers) from Ras Al Khaimah port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
“The vessel has been advised to raise anchor and immediately leave the area and move to its anchorage in Dubai,” Ambry said.
Analysts say the increase in attacks and threats by Iran corresponds to an increase in the amount of oil and petroleum products passing through the strait. At the end of September, output averaged about 13.1 million barrels a day, according to ocean data tracking service Kpler.
This represents just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that passed through the Strait each day before the outbreak of war.
However, the flow appears to have slowed this month. Just seven tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, less than half the seven-day average and the lowest since July 23, Kupler data showed.
However, the reading can be revised even higher after a ship has passed through the Channel, as many ships switch off their identification systems to avoid detection.
The US military continues to blockade Iranian ports as part of its strategy to maintain economic pressure on Iran.
On Saturday, the crew of a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman ignored warnings and attempted to enforce the ongoing naval blockade against Iran, rendering it unnavigable.
“U.S. military jets struck the stern of the Panamanian-flagged M/V Ocean Molica (also known as Arica Sun) with precision munitions, completely disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming the crew,” U.S. Central Command posted on X.
Analysts say the U.S. lockdown has been highly effective. September was the first month in which Iran did not load oil onto tankers since maritime data tracking service Kpler began monitoring Iranian exports in 2013.
Last week, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council for National Security, said the current economic situation is one of the most difficult times the country has faced.
The Iranian government insists that if it cannot export oil, its neighbors cannot either. Considering the United States’ lack of air defense interceptor missiles, it believes its country has the initiative and has shifted its military posture to an offensive.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, said in late September: “The Americans and other countries should know this: As I have said before, in areas where we cannot sell oil, no one else can sell oil. And if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure is safe.”
Now it appears the company is making that threat a reality.
