moscow —
By agreeing to open the Russian tap and release hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel into a starving world market, the Kremlin achieved something it could never do with raw military power on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.
The deal, which suspends fuel export sanctions against Russia for six months and allows diesel sales at market prices, would be a welcome boon for Russia’s economy, which is straining under the strain of a war in Ukraine that has dragged on much longer than expected.
But for Russia’s strongman President Vladimir Putin, the real benefit isn’t billions of dollars in new revenue. The deal and the rhetoric surrounding it are driving a wedge into the heart of the Western alliance, which is trying to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war.
US President Donald Trump detailed the new extraordinary reality in harsh terms, mocking the angry reaction of wartime Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who derided the deal as a “weak decision by a powerful partner” that would provide “extra funding for this war.”
“I said do whatever you want to Russia. Don’t bash the refineries, because that’s what world problems have caused, and he wants to create problems in the world. He wants to create problems for our farmers and ranchers,” Trump said before calling out Ukraine’s new leader, essentially blaming Ukraine for the global fuel price hike that has been especially severe in the United States.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney sided with President Zelenskiy when the two leaders met on Sunday, saying the deal was “in direct contradiction to the efforts of Ukraine, Canada and our allies to build peace and stability in Europe.”
In recent months, Ukraine’s relentless drone attacks have flown deep into Russian territory with terrifying precision, systematically crippled refineries that serve as both economic engines and fuel tanks for the Russian military.
Amid domestic fuel shortages and sharp production cuts, the Kremlin this month suspended all diesel exports to meet domestic demand. This is a stunning setback for a country that was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter before the Ukraine war.
Regardless of whether Russia actually delivers the promised diesel, by characterizing Ukraine’s drone strikes on refineries as an attack on American interests, Washington is effectively aligning its economic priorities with Russia’s survival—despite analysts suggesting the deal is unlikely to dramatically move the needle on diesel prices.
The US has strong means that it can draw to give Ukraine the ball.
The US government is no longer providing funds and weapons to Kiev. However, if Ukraine continues its current attacks on Russian infrastructure, which President Trump wants to leave alone, there is a risk that important U.S. intelligence sharing (the digital backbone of Ukraine’s defense) will be cut off. This threat is real, and that’s exactly what the United States did in the wake of last year’s infamous Oval Office bombing.
President Zelenskiy has said he is aware of the risks and is willing to cooperate, but only if Russia does the same. President Zelenskiy said in a recent statement that “Ukraine is ready to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if Russia stops attacking its energy infrastructure.”
To Ukraine, the entire episode may seem like yet another painful existential betrayal by American leaders, who have at times grudgingly acknowledged respect for Kiev’s bold military tactics. Currently, the most effective asymmetric weapon, persistent drone attacks on oil refineries, is weakened and could be neutralized by US diplomatic pressure coupled with President Trump’s irresistible urge to make deals with the Kremlin rather than with Russian anti-aircraft batteries.
Meanwhile, the mood in Moscow is cheerful.
“The Russian side has confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the U.S. market and to the world market in general,” Putin said in an official statement Friday night after a pre-scheduled phone call with Trump.
“We are confident that this will have a positive impact on the global economy as a whole,” he added.
Secretly, Kremlin leaders must be rubbing their hands with glee.
Both he and Trump want an immediate end to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Both sides want Ukraine’s president to be replaced by someone who will agree to a quick deal.
And now, just weeks after President Trump signed into law a bill sponsored by the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham that would allow punitive sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil, Washington itself is now a customer.
A battered but relatively unified Western front that has stood up against resource-rich Moscow for more than four years suddenly appears to be dealing a powerful new blow.
