Atmospheric attempts to make it actually feel like fall across much of the United States have been repeatedly thwarted in recent weeks, but that’s about to change in a big way.
Temperatures will plummet to their lowest levels since spring in much of the region east of the Rocky Mountains later this week as a strong cold front moves across the country.
A dramatic pattern reversal will come soon for some who are still roasting in summer-like heat. Dozens of locations across the south-central United States will see record high temperatures on Tuesday, but the arrival of the front will drop those temperatures by more than 30 degrees in many areas by Friday or Saturday.
This weekend, some parts of the northern United States could experience subfreezing temperatures overnight for the first time since spring. The cold front could also increase the threat of flooding in the Plains and Texas for several days.
Things have to get much worse before they get better. Summer-like heat is expected to peak in the central United States on Tuesday, with highs expected to reach 90 degrees as far as Illinois and northern Indiana, and 80 degrees in the Ohio Valley.
St. Louis could experience its hottest day later this year, with temperatures climbing into the mid-90s on Tuesday. Detroit and Cleveland are expected to record highs in the 80s, potentially breaking daily temperature records.
The heat will ease only slightly on Wednesday as the front begins to approach the central United States, but the South will continue to swelter with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Atlanta could attempt a record high of 87 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday. So is Nashville’s record of 89 degrees Fahrenheit.
Thursday will continue to be a hot day across the Southeast and South Central United States, but as the cold front continues to move slowly eastward, large temperature swings will begin in parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest.
In Kansas City, Missouri, high temperatures could reach the mid-70s on Thursday after topping 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, a nearly 20-degree inversion.
The turnaround is expected to accelerate Friday, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected from the Plains to the Midwest and the Ohio Valley.
St. Louis may only reach the low 60s, more than 30 degrees colder than Tuesday’s temperature, which is likely to set a new record. This will be the city’s coolest day since early May.
The same goes for Chicago, where highs are expected to be nearly 30 degrees cooler than Tuesday, with highs expected in the low 50s, making it the coldest day since early May.
A front will reach the coast on Saturday, bringing fall finally to the East Coast and across the South. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s in the South, while highs in the Great Lakes and Northeast will remain in the 50s and 40s.
Temperatures in New York City on Saturday could barely reach the low 50s, likely making it the coolest day since late April. Washington, D.C. will also experience the coldest weather since late April, with highs expected to reach the mid-50s.
Atlanta peaks in the low 60s. It would have been the coolest day since early May if it weren’t for last Saturday’s rainy, windy, and cool weather from former Hurricane Isaias. But by early Sunday morning, when temperatures dip below 50 degrees Fahrenheit, the city will undoubtedly reach its lowest overnight temperature since spring.
Sunday will be the coldest morning since spring in Nashville, Dallas, New York City, Washington, D.C., and many other places.
The cooldown won’t last very long as unseasonably warm temperatures may return next week.
The upcoming fall weather will bring a series of hazards to the central United States by midweek. Deep tropical moisture from the Gulf collides with a cold front over plains, increasing the threat of multi-day flooding. Storms can also move or train over the same area repeatedly, like a train on a track.
Wednesday and Thursday are the days when flooding concerns are highest, but some problems could start as early as Tuesday evening.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible near the cold front late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats, but isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Areas most at risk of flooding continue to suffer from severe drought. Rain is much needed, but if it falls faster than the dry ground can absorb it, flash flooding can occur.
The flood risk will decrease on Friday as the front begins to move east.
