Jerusalem —
Exit polls on Tuesday night showed there was no clear winner in Israel’s general election, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, falling short of the 61 seats needed for a ruling majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
With more than 85% of votes counted, Channel 12 and Y-Net predict Netanyahu’s coalition will win 53 seats, down from the 68-seat coalition he led in the outgoing Knesset. His Likud party is expected to remain the single largest party.
Inconclusive Israeli election leaves future leadership uncertain
But Israeli politics is all about coalition building, not becoming the largest party, and Netanyahu’s path to staying in power is currently unclear.
Opposition parties also have a complicated path to gaining power.
According to the latest projections from Ynet and Channel 12, parties opposed to Netanyahu have a clear majority, with 67 seats guaranteed. But they are divided, split between right, left and centrist parties, and between Jewish and Arab parties.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party is the largest opposition party and is expected to win 21 seats, but his path to power has been through cooperation with Arab parties and is currently expected to win 19 seats, a scenario that not all opposition leaders accept.
Things could change as the actual votes are counted. The final tally is expected to take several days.
With exit polls showing Netanyahu and Prime Minister Eisenkot falling short of a majority, both leaders addressed supporters and occupied the night trying to hammer out a narrative of victory.
Speaking at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked voters for what he called a new vote of confidence. However, he stopped short of declaring complete victory.
“Two things became clear tonight: Likud is the largest political party in Israel. There is no dispute about that,” he said. “And secondly, the right-wing bloc has a clear and decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish masses.”
“We must establish a strong domestic right-wing government,” Netanyahu continued. “Israel must not be put at risk by a government that relies on an anti-Zionist Arab party that opposes our very existence, views Hamas as a charity, and calls our soldiers war criminals.”
Eisenkot also did not declare victory when he spoke at campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. But he said Israel had voted against Prime Minister Netanyahu.
“We made history! The people voted for change. The coalition of failures has lost the trust of the people.” “The people of Israel have voted against Prime Minister Netanyahu continuing to serve as Prime Minister of Israel.”
“Any worthy leader would accept the people’s vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from politics today,” said Eisenkot, who was once Israel’s top general and lost his son in fighting in Gaza.
This election had the highest overall turnout since 1999, at least 77.7%. The surge was particularly pronounced among Arabs, who traditionally vote at a lower rate than Jewish Israelis. Arab parties said they expected turnout to be over 75%, their best performance ever.
Israel’s Palestinians, who make up about 20 percent of Israel’s population, were driven by a desperate desire to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, made up mostly of hardline ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. During Ben Gvir’s tenure as Minister of National Security, crime and murder rates in the Arab community rose dramatically.
Youssef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, said: “We have proven that we are a political force that cannot be ignored and that it is impossible to build a future here without our voice,” calling it a “historic day.” Mansour Abbas, chairman of the Ra’am list committee, told i24news: “The record-breaking election results are all thanks to Ben Gvir and Smotrich and the entire government’s disregard for Israel’s Arab community.”
Arab turnout may have prevented Netanyahu from winning a majority, but it also complicates Eisenkot’s bid to replace him. Eisenkot has set conditions for any partner to join his government, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be dismantled, conditions that most Arab lawmakers are unlikely to accept.
Furthermore, two of his opposition allies, Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, have completely ruled out forming a government with an Arab party.
As a result, Eisenkot’s path to victory is unclear.
Exit polls are just estimates, and things can change before the actual votes are counted and finalized, which usually takes several days.
Once the results are certified, the election process will move to Israeli President Isaac Herzog. At a series of meetings in Jerusalem, Herzog will begin a series of consultations in which the elected parties will recommend the choice of prime minister.
Based on these recommendations, the president orders one candidate to attempt to form a government. It is not necessarily the leader of the largest party, but rather the person he thinks is most likely to muster a 61-seat majority based on his discretion.
Winning means more than just votes and seats, it also means building and sustaining a viable coalition.
Mr. Herzog’s first decision will be whether to ask Mr. Netanyahu or Mr. Eisenkot to form a government.
Mr. Netanyahu is the No. 1 party, but Mr. Eisenkot’s nominations are likely to increase with support from Arab parties. After being assigned the task, one of the two will begin weeks of political negotiations over cabinet positions, budget priorities and policy commitments.
Allotted candidates have 28 days to form a government, which will likely be extended by 14 days. If the president fails, he will have four more weeks to hand over the job to another candidate. If that also fails, Congress will have a short time to field another candidate. If that is not possible, the country will automatically proceed to another election.
Since neither side holds a clear majority, an impasse seems a plausible outcome.
Mr. Herzog may encourage Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Eisenkot to form a unity government between the two major parties, but it is unclear whether such a deal is even possible. Eisenkot has denied ever meeting Netanyahu, who has a long history of grilling politicians who reached similar agreements.
