Jerusalem —
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been erased countless times during a political career spanning more than 30 years, only to prove that his obituary was written prematurely. Israel’s election results this week appear to give the prime minister’s opponents a chance to stop running, but that is not guaranteed in the country’s ruthless political system.
Most votes had been counted by Wednesday night. But there is no clear winner for Israel’s top post, and Netanyahu’s political survival remains in doubt for weeks and possibly months.
As vote counting draws to a close, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest party with an estimated 26 seats in the 120-seat parliament known as the Knesset. However, his right-wing coalition lost its majority, winning just 53 seats, falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is not winning. But he’s not defeated either – at least not yet. Now he must stop his rivals from forming their own government, so he might survive again.
On paper, the opposition holds about 67 seats, but its arithmetic is fractured by ideological, national and personal rivalries. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, won 21 seats, but Jewish opposition parties totaled only 48 seats, falling far short of victory. To reach 61 seats, it will need the support of two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which are expected to win a record 19 seats between the two parties. Analysts say the record turnout among Israel’s Arab or Palestinian citizens is partly a reaction to four years of a far-right national security minister that has seen crime in Arab society soar.
This is where the math gets complicated. Ra’am is an Islamist party with much influence from Israel’s Bedouin community. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, became the first Arab politician to join the Israeli government after the 2021 Israeli elections. The Joint List is expected to be a larger Arab party, combining several smaller parties, including the communist Hadash faction, the secularist Taal faction, and the nationalist Balad faction.
On Wednesday, left-wing Democratic Party leader Yair Golan rejected what he called Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “racist division between Jewish and Arab votes” and called on partners to count Arab parties as part of the bloc. But two of Eisenkot’s right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have opposed any government that relies on Arab parties. (They have not issued a statement on this issue since the voting ended.)
The Joint List said on Wednesday that it is ready for political cooperation and is ready to “do everything in its power to bring an end to the Netanyahu regime.”
Sources close to Netanyahu said his main post-election goal is to outlaw and prevent Jewish-Arab political cooperation that could force him to return home.
“He is very concerned about the minority government,” the source said. Prime Minister Netanyahu also plans to pressure individual opposition members not to cooperate with Arab parties. After campaigning throughout the election, Likud released a statement on Wednesday accusing Arab parties of “stealing the election” through bribery, intimidation, violence and forgery, echoing the claims of election fraud by its closest ally, US President Donald Trump. The Central Election Commission announced on Wednesday that it was investigating the complaint, but it had already dismissed thousands of complaints from political parties on election day.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN that he plans to “nullify this possibility by any means possible, including launching an attack on Iran and getting President Trump to intervene on my behalf in Israeli politics.”
Opposition parties are concerned that Netanyahu could use the security crisis to stall or prevent a new government. Before the election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pressured President Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but the United States held back, in part because Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned that it could disrupt the vote. Israeli security officials told CNN that the operational plan is ready and awaiting President Trump’s approval, possibly after the US midterm elections.
Political deadlock looms in Israel with no clear winner in sight
“There’s no way to know what Prime Minister Netanyahu will do,” an opposition party official told CNN. “We are aware that he may try to push for further escalation.” Another source said Netanyahu “will do everything possible to leave the prime minister’s office, including internal and external turmoil.”
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, on Tuesday night called on Israel’s security chiefs to remember that “Prime Minister Netanyahu is an interim prime minister without a mandate or the trust of the people.” Immediately after the exit polls were released, Mr. Eisenkot told his supporters that the people had “chosen change.”
In his first reaction to the latest results since his Tuesday night speech, Eisenkot said he remained committed to “bringing change to Israel.”
Numbers may still change. By Wednesday evening, the Central Election Commission is expected to have finished counting most of the votes. Attention is now focused on double-envelope voting from home by soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and staff, foreign diplomats, and voters with disabilities. The committee estimates there are between 430,000 and 480,000 double envelopes, enough for more than 10 seats. These will be counted separately in a special verification process, with the final results expected to be announced on Thursday.
Then the political maneuvering begins in earnest.
The next step will be taken by President Isaac Herzog, who will play a key post-election role. His job here is to consult with all elected parties about the candidate he will recommend as prime minister, before selecting the person he believes has the best chance of securing a majority of 61 seats. This is not necessarily the leader of the largest party, but the leader with the most plausible path to coalition.
Mr. Eisenkot is likely to receive more nominations than Mr. Netanyahu, as Arab parties are expected to support him.
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Then the clock starts ticking.
The selected candidates have 28 days to negotiate with other parties on ministerial positions, budgets and policies to form a government, with the possibility of an extension of another 14 days. If he fails, the job will be passed to another candidate for another four weeks. If he fails, Congress will have a short time to field a replacement candidate. If that fails, the country will move to automatic elections.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has advantages as interim prime minister. If Eisenkot receives the mission first and fails, all he has to do is wait for time to pass. And if Israel heads to new elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu will remain in interim government for several months.
Eisenkot is not completely without options.
Even without forming a government, the opposition could use its parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key positions. That could limit Netanyahu’s ability to govern and even allow the opposition to advance legislation.
However, Eisenkot, a retired lieutenant general, is not in the desired battlefield. Netanyahu’s coalition remains incredibly loyal and there is virtually no need to worry about defections. The same cannot be said about Eisenkot. His diverse coalition is not very ideologically aligned, and even the slightest step could splinter the bloc and send the country back to elections.
For now, the focus is on Herzog, and his role is even more important given the current impasse. He could push Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a unity government, as neither alliance holds a clear majority.
“We must do everything to avoid re-election,” Herzog said Wednesday. He called on party leaders to approach the talks with an “open mind”.
