On June 21, 2026, a commercial ship is anchored off the coast of Sultan Qaboos near Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman.
Elke Scoliers | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed since US President Donald Trump’s blockade went into effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the US and Iran escalates.
The renewed U.S. offensive against Iran, Tehran’s declaration of a total ban on maritime traffic and new attacks on commercial vessels have led to sharp declines in strait transits in several shipping datasets, prompting operators navigating the strait to reassess the risks of entering the Gulf.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded just 53 vessel movements in the week to July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week. Tanker and gas carrier sailings, which are responsible for the majority of Gulf crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, fell from 90 to 30 sailings.
Kpler data similarly shows that activity worsened soon after the lockdown began. Up until July 15, there were an average of more than 20 ships per day, but that number had dropped to 16 on that day, and by July 16, it was down to single digits. Traffic remained subdued throughout the rest of the week, with recovery being sporadic.
The slowdown reverses weeks of gradual normalization when a cease-fire in mid-June prompted some shipowners to resume Gulf sailings.
Instead, new fighting is once again drying up the strategic waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil consumption.
“Since tensions flared up again, things have slowed down significantly,” said Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “It’s not surprising. As you can imagine, people retreat and reevaluate.”
However, that doesn’t mean the traffic is completely gone. “Everyone’s risk appetite is different,” Diakun says. “You can still see tankers coming in and out, but it hasn’t completely stopped.”
He said ship movements were likely to continue to “ebb and flow” rather than see a steady recovery, as each time tensions rose, shipowners would seize a moment of safety and retreat again.
Data from S&P Global paints a similar picture. Only 40 vessels passed through the Strait between July 17 and July 19, making an average of about 13 Strait crossings a day, but weekly traffic to July 19 was down almost 50% compared to the previous week.
More than 70% of traffic during this period was made up of commercial ships, but only about a third were assessed as compliant with maritime regulations. Iranian-linked and sanctioned vessels continue to dominate many voyages, suggesting that mainstream international shipowners remain reluctant to return.
“The recent developments show how premature expectations for a rapid opening of the Strait were,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
“The reimposition of hostilities and the blockade has put the conflict back on an escalatory trajectory,” he said, adding that logistics through Hormuz had fallen to about 15% of pre-war levels. If the current heavy fighting continues for several weeks, or if the region’s energy infrastructure comes under attack, oil could retest $100 a barrel, he told CNBC in an email.
